云知声
Price 66.90 HKD | 1d -1.8% | 5d -0.7% | 20d -14.5% | RSI 34
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.05%
Turnover value: 0.02 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -1.24
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): -69%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): -74%
dValue/dVol ratio: 1.06
Block days (20d): 6
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.647
Float / Total cap: 30.2 / 50.0 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.05% traded (about 1 in 2103 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$0.02亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$50.0亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.05%. The thin pool (vs HK$30.2亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER STALE / DRAINING - activity collapsing
WHY average daily volume is 69% BELOW the prior 10 sessions (~0.31x): participants are leaving and interest is dying - moves made now are on stale, thinning flow.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 1,449,316 shares/day vs 4,710,244 in the prior 10d (-69%).
money per 10d: HK$1.01亿 now vs HK$3.83亿 before (-74%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER Weakly sellers - price down on flat/fading volume = interest dying (exhaustion).
WHY 20d price change is -14.5% (5d -0.7%) while 10v10 volume is -69% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -1.24 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d -1.8% / 5d -0.7% / 20d -14.5% | Amihud 0.65 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BEARISH tape] deep book, falling tape - easy to exit, but no long edge here.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER volume 69% over a full 10-day window = structure draining away persistently
6 block days in 20 = big players active REPEATEDLY (systematic, not one-off)
DRILL the 6 block day(s) (>2x the prior 20d base) fell on 2026-09-07, 2026-09-08, 2026-09-09, 2026-09-15, 2026-09-18.
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence moderate - 2 institutional vs 1 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): -74% vs -69% = ratio 1.06 -> scaled together; ticket size unchanged.
· [2] block prints (20d): 6 days above 2x base volume (2026-09-09, 2026-09-15, 2026-09-18) -> big single orders hit REPEATEDLY (institutional-size).
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIO [B01955] +116,840 sh (+0.26pp; RETAIL online-broker seat).
· next: LONG BRIDGE HK LTD [B02195] +75,840 sh (other).
· biggest cutter: UBS SECURITIES HONG KONG L [B01161] -19,763 sh (-0.04pp; institutional).
· [4] mainland (southbound, largely institutional/quasi): +5,359,278 sh over ~30d -> committed demand building.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER SMALL float - only 60% free to trade.
Fewer shares to absorb demand, so the same turnover moves price
MORE: squeezes fly up, air pockets fall fast. Exciting and dangerous.
DRILL free-float HK$30.2亿 of a HK$50.0亿 total cap (60% free, 40% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.65 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 1/3 HK$0.02亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 1/3 10v10 -69% (collapsing)
TOTAL 5/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.08% of free float changes hands per day - this is how much of the tradeable supply actually turns over.
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: collapsing
VERDICT: ADEQUATE (5/9) - the weak link is FRESHNESS (10v10 -69% (collapsing)), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: shorts covering (short 16% but fading) -> adds a bid; mainland 29% & adding -> committed demand soaking float; repeat big-player prints.
TRADE READ: Grinding lower (price down on flat/fading volume) - exhaustion, not panic; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 15.52% of turnover (fading) | mainland = 29.44% held (+11.9pp/30d)
READ ~16% of the tape is borrowed supply but it's fading - shorts are covering, which itself adds a bid; the tape is getting cleaner. mainland keeps adding (+11.9pp) and now owns 29% - committed demand soaking up float, so the smaller remaining supply makes moves sharper both ways.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 66.90
1d / 5d: -1.8% / -0.7%
20d / 50d: -14.5% / -5.8%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 67.43 / 73.03 / 72.78
RSI-14: 34.0
ATR-14: 4.24 (6.3% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER DECELERATING DOWN (still falling, but slowing).
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -0.7% over 5 days = -0.15%/day; 20d -14.5% over 20 days = -0.73%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -0.15%/day · 20d -0.73%/day · 50d -0.12%/day | MA20 slope -3.1%/10d · MA50 slope -0.2%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER NO CLEAN MOMENTUM (price and volume not aligned).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -0.7% with 10d/10d volume -69% and today's volume -1.2σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER MID-RANGE - within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean (not stretched).
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 4.24 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 67.43: -0.8% (-0.1 ATR) below
· vs MA20 73.03: -8.4% (-1.4 ATR) below
· vs MA50 72.78: -8.1% (-1.4 ATR) below
· RSI-14 34.0: weak, 30-40 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 0% up (64.70-635.50): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope -3.1%/10d · MA50 slope -0.2%/10d (mean falling)
READ Within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean - mid-range, no stretch either way.
SO WHAT: no positional edge - let price break a level (mean reclaim or range break) before acting.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 72.60 (RSI 47) vs prior 91.70 (RSI 62) -> no higher high this half (price below the prior peak)
· lows: recent 66.00 (RSI 41) vs prior 66.90 (RSI 41) -> RSI confirmed the low (lower low, RSI not higher)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta 2.15 = the stock normally moves about 2.15% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did +3.1% = market -1.9% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific +5.0%.
DRILL R2 0.12 over 59d - 12% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 2/3 mixed MA stack, but the mean is falling - structure still forming
Participation 1/3 10v10 -69% (drying up)
Room to run 3/3 -1.4 ATR from MA20 - mid-range, RSI 34
TOTAL 6/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: HEALTHY (6/9) - the weak link is PARTICIPATION (10v10 -69% (drying up)), so the move is capped there. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story; pinned near 52w lows.
TRADE READ: Price and volume are not aligned - no clear direction; so there is no momentum edge regardless of the score.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [NO CLEAN MOMENTUM]
NOTE: Price and volume are not aligned - no momentum edge.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: MIXED/NEUTRAL (score +12/100). Active themes: CATALYST.
NARRATIVE SCORE: +12/100 [NEUTRAL / MIXED]
DRILL 1 bullish vs 0 bearish headline(s) of 2 (last 30d) | bull theme: CATALYST | bear theme: -.
READ Bullish and bearish headlines roughly cancel (100% bullish) - no dominant narrative driving sentiment either way.
SUMMARY (last 30 days):
Recent news tone is mixed. product / commercial / technology milestones are in play. Net effect on near-term sentiment is roughly NEUTRAL.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: a PRODUCT / catalyst narrative (orders, launches, supply or ecosystem wins extend the story past today's numbers).
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: no clear bear narrative in the current headlines - little to argue against the story.
DEMAND READ: Clean bullish demand story - buyers have the narrative to themselves right now; little on the other side of the tape.
[CATALYST / FUNDAMENTAL]
- 【9678】雲知聲股價升逾9% 發布新一代模型U2-Flash (15 Sep 2026 · 香港經濟日報HKET)
[OTHER]
- 9678 雲知聲技術分析｜移動平均線與技術指標解讀 - SL886 財經網 (30 Sep 2026 · SL886 財經網)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [CATALYST] 【9678】雲知聲股價升逾9% 發布新一代模型U2-Flash
* [OTHER] 9678 雲知聲技術分析｜移動平均線與技術指標解讀 - SL886 財經網
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· 9678 雲知聲技術分析｜移動平均線與技術指標解讀 - SL886 財經網 (30 Sep 2026 · SL886 財經網)
· 【9678】雲知聲股價升逾9% 發布新一代模型U2-Flash (15 Sep 2026 · 香港經濟日報HKET)
THEME TAGS: CATALYST
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: step-down
Verdict: FADING (exhaustion)
Ticket size: proportional (same crowd, more of it)
This week vs month: 0.19
IN PLAIN WORDS: LOW ENERGY. Little is happening; no strong buyer or seller. Nothing to trade on.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955] +116,840 sh (+0.26pp; now 2.20%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 52 seat(s) built, 26 trimmed, net ADDING overall (+420 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+116,840 sh (+0.26pp) -> FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955]
+75,840 sh (+0.17pp) -> LONG BRIDGE HK LTD [B02195]
+49,140 sh (+0.11pp) -> SOCIETE GENERALE [C00111]
TOP CUTTERS:
-19,763 sh (-0.04pp) -> UBS SECURITIES HONG KONG LTD [B01161]
-18,380 sh (-0.04pp) -> VALUABLE CAPITAL LTD [B01904]
-16,620 sh (-0.04pp) -> CHINA INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL CO [B01654]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 13,288,620 sh = 29.44% of the company (+5,359,278 sh / +11.87pp since 2026-09-07).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 15.52% of today's turnover (meaningful), and it is falling vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. SHORTS COVERING - heavy but fading; covering can itself support the price.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$0.4M vs 5d avg HK$0.9M; 0.001% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/MED] Liquidity fading: last 10d avg volume -69% vs prior 10d — participation drying up.
[LIQUIDITY/HIGH] 6 block-volume days (>2x base) in last 20d: 2026-09-08, 2026-09-09, 2026-09-15, 2026-09-18 — institutional-size prints.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.65 -> liquid.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 6.3% of price — very high volatility.
ANALYST NOTES
* Location: near 52w lows with RSI oversold (34) — bounce candidates, but 'cheap' is not a thesis; needs a real catalyst (note the narrative section).
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: proportional (same crowd, more of it). Price is near 52w lows (capitulation/bounce zone).
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: NEUTRAL. A fundamental catalyst is in play.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 6%)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 66.9 HKD. Recent tape: 20d -14.5%, 5d -0.7%. Both volume and price are weakening (interest drying up). Proportional (same crowd, more of it); price sits 0% up the 52w range. Headline tone is neutral with a fundamental catalyst in play. Bottom line: NO CLEAN EDGE. The signals roughly cancel out, so there is nothing to do here right now — it's a 'watch, don't touch' name until either the flow steps up or price breaks a level worth trading. Key caveat: near 52w lows = weak structural positioning.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d -14.5% / 5d -0.7%, RSI 34, no clean trend; price 0% up its 52w range.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 64.35-66.90 on weakness | stop 60.11 | T1 75.39 (R:R ~1.3:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 74.57 (+11.5%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 75.39 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 96.45 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 6.3% of price; a stop-out is ~10.1% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 6.3%) -> half size, wider stops | CCASS non-custodian seats net building over ~14d (+272,667 sh) -> real holders adding | mainland (southbound) adding +5,359,278 sh -> committed dip demand | short 16% but fading -> covering adds a bid
ENTRY VERDICT: [NO CLEAN ENTRY] NO EDGE at 66.90: signals cancel and the price is not near a clean trigger - stay flat until it bases and reclaims 74.57.