兆易创新
Price 454.80 HKD | 1d 1.2% | 5d -7.1% | 20d -2.6% | RSI 67
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.04%
Turnover value: 1.16 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -1.83
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): -21%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): -16%
dValue/dVol ratio: —
Block days (20d): 0
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.047
Float / Total cap: 151.2 / 3,201.7 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.04% traded (about 1 in 2754 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$1.16亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$3201.7亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.04%. The thin pool (vs HK$151.2亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
CAVEAT: HK$3202亿 total cap is a LARGE company - turnover % naturally
looks low for big floats, and that is NOT illiquidity; check the
Tradeability (Amihud) and Pool-size lines below, which are absolute.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER COOLING - participation fading
WHY average daily volume is 21% below the prior 10 sessions (~0.79x): fewer players engaged than before, so follow-through is less reliable.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 1,692,600 shares/day vs 2,155,300 in the prior 10d (-21%).
money per 10d: HK$8.39亿 now vs HK$10.00亿 before (-16%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER Weakly sellers - price down on flat/fading volume = interest dying (exhaustion).
WHY 20d price change is -2.6% (5d -7.1%) while 10v10 volume is -21% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -1.83 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d 1.2% / 5d -7.1% / 20d -2.6% | Amihud 0.05 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BEARISH tape] deep book, falling tape - easy to exit, but no long edge here.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER 10-day volume within normal range = NO structural change in how much trades
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence moderate - 1 institutional vs 0 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): shift under 25% -> too flat to read ticket size from this alone.
· [2] block prints (20d): none -> no single large prints; flow looks ordinary/retail.
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG S [B01274] +88,445 sh (+0.26pp; INSTITUTIONAL bank/custodian seat).
· next: FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIO [B01955] +37,282 sh (retail-broker).
· biggest cutter: CHINA INTERNATIONAL CAPITA [B01654] -212,900 sh (-0.64pp; institutional).
· [4] mainland (southbound): -75,465 sh over ~30d -> committed demand leaving.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER SMALL float - only 5% free to trade.
Fewer shares to absorb demand, so the same turnover moves price
MORE: squeezes fly up, air pockets fall fast. Exciting and dangerous.
DRILL free-float HK$151.2亿 of a HK$3201.7亿 total cap (5% free, 95% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.05 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 2/3 HK$1.16亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 1/3 10v10 -21% (fading)
TOTAL 6/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.77% of free float changes hands per day - looks low, but this is a LARGE cap: a big float dilutes the % (activity is relative to size, so it is NOT scored).
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: fading
VERDICT: HEALTHY (6/9) - the weak link is FRESHNESS (10v10 -21% (fading)), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: shorts covering (short 25% but fading) -> adds a bid; mainland trimming -> committed demand leaving.
TRADE READ: Grinding lower (price down on flat/fading volume) - exhaustion, not panic; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 25.36% of turnover (fading) | mainland = 52.43% held (-0.2pp/30d)
READ ~25% of the tape is borrowed supply but it's fading - shorts are covering, which itself adds a bid; the tape is getting cleaner. mainland holds 52% - a real sticky holder base sitting behind the price.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 454.80
1d / 5d: 1.2% / -7.1%
20d / 50d: -2.6% / -18.7%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 460.32 / 473.66 / 483.68
RSI-14: 67.0
ATR-14: 28.86 (6.3% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER ACCELERATING DOWN.
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -7.1% over 5 days = -1.42%/day; 20d -2.6% over 20 days = -0.13%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -1.42%/day · 20d -0.13%/day · 50d -0.37%/day | MA20 slope -0.0%/10d · MA50 slope -5.1%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER QUIET DRIFT DOWN (weak selling, no urgency).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -7.1% with 10d/10d volume -21% and today's volume -1.8σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER MID-RANGE - within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean (not stretched).
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 28.86 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 460.32: -1.2% (-0.2 ATR) below
· vs MA20 473.66: -4.0% (-0.7 ATR) below
· vs MA50 483.68: -6.0% (-1.0 ATR) below
· RSI-14 67.0: firm, 60-70 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 23% up (222.80-1,241.00): lower third
· MA20 slope -0.0%/10d · MA50 slope -5.1%/10d (mean falling)
READ Within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean - mid-range, no stretch either way.
SO WHAT: no positional edge - let price break a level (mean reclaim or range break) before acting.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 516.00 (RSI 55) vs prior 491.60 (RSI 47) -> RSI confirmed the high (higher high, RSI not lower)
· lows: recent 448.20 (RSI 41) vs prior 420.00 (RSI 36) -> no lower low this half (price above the prior trough)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta -0.55 = the stock normally moves about -0.55% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did -13.8% = market +0.5% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific -14.3%.
DRILL R2 0.01 over 59d - 1% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 3/3 MA5<MA20<MA50 with the mean falling - clean downtrend structure
Participation 1/3 10v10 -21% (drying up)
Room to run 3/3 -0.7 ATR from MA20 - mid-range, RSI 67
TOTAL 7/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: HEALTHY (7/9) - the weak link is PARTICIPATION (10v10 -21% (drying up)), so the move is capped there. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story.
TRADE READ: The move is DOWN but on light volume (weak drift, no urgency); so there is little force either way - wait for a volume or level break.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [QUIET DRIFT DOWN]
NOTE: Slow bleed with no urgency - no momentum edge either way.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: BULLISH (score +25/100).
NARRATIVE SCORE: +25/100 [MILDLY BULLISH]
DRILL 1 bullish vs 0 bearish headline(s) of 3 (last 30d) | bull theme: OTHER | bear theme: -.
READ News flow leans positive but not decisively (100% bullish) - supportive, with the other side still present.
SUMMARY (last 30 days):
Recent news tone is mixed. News flow is light; no single dominant driver. Net effect on near-term sentiment is roughly NEUTRAL.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: no fresh bull catalyst in the current headlines - buyers have no new reason to step in yet.
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: no clear bear narrative in the current headlines - little to argue against the story.
DEMAND READ: No dominant belief driving the tape; narrative is thin.
[OTHER]
- 兆易創新(03986.HK)授出合共148.79萬份獎勵 (28 Sep 2026 · TradingView)
- 兆易創新(03986.HK)9月4日耗資4985.3萬元回購13.26萬股A股 (04 Sep 2026 · TradingView)
- 兆易創新3986召開臨時股東大會 註冊資本變更及關聯交易決議案成焦點 - Minichart (28 Sep 2026 · Minichart)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [OTHER] 兆易創新(03986.HK)授出合共148.79萬份獎勵
* [OTHER] 兆易創新(03986.HK)9月4日耗資4985.3萬元回購13.26萬股A股
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· 兆易創新(03986.HK)授出合共148.79萬份獎勵 (28 Sep 2026 · TradingView)
· 兆易創新(03986.HK)9月4日耗資4985.3萬元回購13.26萬股A股 (04 Sep 2026 · TradingView)
· 兆易創新3986召開臨時股東大會 註冊資本變更及關聯交易決議案成焦點 - Minichart (28 Sep 2026 · Minichart)
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: stable
Verdict: STABLE LIQUIDITY
Ticket size: n/a (volume flat)
This week vs month: 0.48
IN PLAIN WORDS: STEADY, NO CHANGE. Same flow as before - no new money pushing either way.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG SECUR [B01274] +88,445 sh (+0.26pp; now 0.91%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 49 seat(s) built, 63 trimmed, net TRIMMING overall (-2,900 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+88,445 sh (+0.26pp) -> MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG SECUR [B01274]
+37,282 sh (+0.11pp) -> FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955]
+33,200 sh (+0.10pp) -> INTERACTIVE BROKERS HONG KONG [B01590]
TOP CUTTERS:
-212,900 sh (-0.64pp) -> CHINA INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL CO [B01654]
-75,199 sh (-0.23pp) -> MERRILL LYNCH FAR EAST LTD [B01224]
-61,600 sh (-0.18pp) -> EMPEROR SECURITIES LTD [B01338]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 17,436,035 sh = 52.43% of the company (-75,465 sh / -0.22pp since 2026-09-07).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 25.36% of today's turnover (HEAVY), and it is falling vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. SHORTS COVERING - heavy but fading; covering can itself support the price.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$29.5M vs 5d avg HK$38.1M; 0.074% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.05 -> liquid.
[MOMENTUM/HIGH] Price < MA20 < MA50 — bearish trend alignment.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 6.3% of price — very high volatility.
ANALYST NOTES
* Structure: only 5% of cap is free-floating — thin float amplifies moves both ways; squeezes up, air pockets down.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: undifferentiated flow. Price is 22% up its 52w range.
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: NEUTRAL.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 6%)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 454.8 HKD. Recent tape: 20d -2.6%, 5d -7.1%. Flows are steady with no regime change. Undifferentiated flow; price sits 22% up the 52w range. Headline tone is neutral. Bottom line: NO CLEAN EDGE. The signals roughly cancel out, so there is nothing to do here right now — it's a 'watch, don't touch' name until either the flow steps up or price breaks a level worth trading.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d -2.6% / 5d -7.1%, RSI 67, downtrend (MA5<MA20<MA50); price 22% up its 52w range.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 437.49-454.80 on weakness | stop 408.63 | T1 512.51 (R:R ~1.2:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 537.67 (+18.2%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 512.51 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 535.00 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 6.3% of price; a stop-out is ~10.2% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 6.3%) -> half size, wider stops | tight float 5% -> squeezes fast both ways | CCASS non-custodian seats net trimming over ~14d (-339,789 sh) -> holders reducing | mainland (southbound) trimming -75,465 sh -> committed demand leaving | short 25% but fading -> covering adds a bid
ENTRY VERDICT: [NO CLEAN ENTRY] NO EDGE at 454.80: signals cancel and the price is not near a clean trigger - stay flat until it bases and reclaims 537.67.