迅策
Price 91.95 HKD | 1d -3.0% | 5d -14.0% | 20d -28.0% | RSI 66
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.06%
Turnover value: 0.17 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -1.51
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): -52%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): -56%
dValue/dVol ratio: 1.07
Block days (20d): 0
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.345
Float / Total cap: 253.1 / 304.2 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.06% traded (about 1 in 1750 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$0.17亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$304.2亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.06%. The thin pool (vs HK$253.1亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER COOLING - participation fading
WHY average daily volume is 52% below the prior 10 sessions (~0.48x): fewer players engaged than before, so follow-through is less reliable.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 951,120 shares/day vs 1,987,860 in the prior 10d (-52%).
money per 10d: HK$0.98亿 now vs HK$2.20亿 before (-56%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER Weakly sellers - price down on flat/fading volume = interest dying (exhaustion).
WHY 20d price change is -28.0% (5d -14.0%) while 10v10 volume is -52% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -1.51 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d -3.0% / 5d -14.0% / 20d -28.0% | Amihud 0.34 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BEARISH tape] deep book, falling tape - easy to exit, but no long edge here.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER volume 52% over a full 10-day window = structure draining away persistently
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER UNCLEAR (confidence n/a - 0 institutional vs 0 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): -56% vs -52% = ratio 1.07 -> scaled together; ticket size unchanged.
· [2] block prints (20d): none -> no single large prints; flow looks ordinary/retail.
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = FOSUN INTERNATIONAL SECURI [B01181] +20,900 sh (+0.01pp; seat).
· next: CMB WING LUNG BANK LTD [C00042] +15,100 sh (other).
· biggest cutter: ORIENT SECURITIES (HONG KO [B01900] -391,400 sh (-0.14pp; other).
· [4] mainland (southbound): -1,123,700 sh over ~30d -> committed demand leaving.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER BROAD float - 83% free to trade.
Plenty of supply, so squeezes are hard to sustain - but rallies
need more real buying to keep going. Calmer.
DRILL free-float HK$253.1亿 of a HK$304.2亿 total cap (83% free, 17% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.34 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 1/3 HK$0.17亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 1/3 10v10 -52% (fading)
TOTAL 5/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.07% of free float changes hands per day - this is how much of the tradeable supply actually turns over.
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: fading
VERDICT: ADEQUATE (5/9) - the weak link is FRESHNESS (10v10 -52% (fading)), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: mainland trimming -> committed demand leaving.
TRADE READ: Grinding lower (price down on flat/fading volume) - exhaustion, not panic; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 12.10% of turnover (fading) | mainland = 4.06% held (-0.4pp/30d)
READ a moderate 12% of turnover is borrowed supply (fading) - real but not dominant; it colours the tape rather than drives it. mainland has been trimming (-0.4pp) - committed demand leaving, a liquidity-quality negative.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 91.95
1d / 5d: -3.0% / -14.0%
20d / 50d: -28.0% / -34.3%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 97.59 / 104.64 / 117.77
RSI-14: 66.4
ATR-14: 6.71 (7.3% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER ACCELERATING DOWN.
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -14.0% over 5 days = -2.80%/day; 20d -28.0% over 20 days = -1.40%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -2.80%/day · 20d -1.40%/day · 50d -0.69%/day | MA20 slope -11.0%/10d · MA50 slope -0.6%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER QUIET DRIFT DOWN (weak selling, no urgency).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -14.0% with 10d/10d volume -52% and today's volume -1.5σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER BELOW the mean - pullback / weak positioning.
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 6.71 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 97.59: -5.8% (-0.8 ATR) below
· vs MA20 104.64: -12.1% (-1.9 ATR) below
· vs MA50 117.77: -21.9% (-3.8 ATR) below
· RSI-14 66.4: firm, 60-70 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 14% up (47.90-358.40): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope -11.0%/10d · MA50 slope -0.6%/10d (mean falling)
READ Below the mean inside a falling structure: not 'cheap', but meaningfully stretched to the downside - a bounce can come, yet only a reclaim of the MA20 repairs the trend.
SO WHAT: weak, not cheap - treat a bounce as tradeable only once price RECLAIMS the MA20; until then the trend is still down.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER BULLISH DIVERGENCE - price made a lower low, but momentum (RSI) made a higher low.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 107.00 (RSI 44) vs prior 129.30 (RSI 51) -> no higher high this half (price below the prior peak)
· lows: recent 91.95 (RSI 35) vs prior 93.70 (RSI 31) -> BULLISH DIVERGENCE (lower low, higher RSI)
DRILL price lower low 91.95 vs 93.70, but RSI higher low 35 vs 31.
SO WHAT: the down-move may be exhausting - watch for a bounce, but only act once price confirms with a higher low; don't catch the knife on the signal alone.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta 2.75 = the stock normally moves about 2.75% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did -6.4% = market -2.5% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific -4.0%.
DRILL R2 0.13 over 59d - 13% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 3/3 MA5<MA20<MA50 with the mean falling - clean downtrend structure
Participation 1/3 10v10 -52% (drying up)
Room to run 2/3 -1.9 ATR from MA20 - moderately extended, RSI 66
TOTAL 6/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): BULLISH divergence (price lower low, RSI higher low) - the down-move may be exhausting.
VERDICT: HEALTHY (6/9) - the weak link is PARTICIPATION (10v10 -52% (drying up)), so the move is capped there. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story.
TRADE READ: The move is DOWN but on light volume (weak drift, no urgency); so there is little force either way - wait for a volume or level break.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [QUIET DRIFT DOWN]
NOTE: Slow bleed with no urgency - no momentum edge either way.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: MIXED/NEUTRAL (score +0/100). Active themes: CATALYST.
NARRATIVE SCORE: +0/100 [NO CLEAR NARRATIVE]
DRILL 0 bullish vs 0 bearish headline(s) of 2 (last 30d) | bull theme: - | bear theme: -.
READ No clearly bullish or bearish headline in the last 30 days - sentiment is neutral; there is no narrative edge to trade on.
SUMMARY (last 30 days):
Recent news tone is mixed. brokers/analysts are active (rating or target-price changes). Net effect on near-term sentiment is roughly NEUTRAL.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: the AI-COMPUTE / domestic-substitution theme (local chips and models are the secular demand driver); ANALYST validation (upgrades and target hikes give buyers cover to add).
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: no clear bear narrative in the current headlines - little to argue against the story.
DEMAND READ: Clean bullish demand story - buyers have the narrative to themselves right now; little on the other side of the tape.
[CATALYST / FUNDAMENTAL]
- 大行評級丨麥格理：首予迅策“跑贏大市”評級及目標價149港元 (04 Sep 2026 · TradingView)
[OTHER]
- 機構股東聯合“投票”！迅策科技120億算力議案獲股東會一致通過 (28 Sep 2026 · TradingView)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [CATALYST] 大行評級丨麥格理：首予迅策“跑贏大市”評級及目標價149港元
* [OTHER] 機構股東聯合“投票”！迅策科技120億算力議案獲股東會一致通過
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· 機構股東聯合“投票”！迅策科技120億算力議案獲股東會一致通過 (28 Sep 2026 · TradingView)
· 大行評級丨麥格理：首予迅策“跑贏大市”評級及目標價149港元 (04 Sep 2026 · TradingView)
THEME TAGS: CATALYST
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: step-down
Verdict: FADING (exhaustion)
Ticket size: proportional (same crowd, more of it)
This week vs month: 0.35
IN PLAIN WORDS: LOW ENERGY. Little is happening; no strong buyer or seller. Nothing to trade on.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = FOSUN INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES [B01181] +20,900 sh (+0.01pp; now 0.01%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 51 seat(s) built, 29 trimmed, net TRIMMING overall (-778,720 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+20,900 sh (+0.01pp) -> FOSUN INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES [B01181]
+15,100 sh (+0.01pp) -> CMB WING LUNG BANK LTD [C00042]
+14,000 sh (+0.00pp) -> PHILLIP SECURITIES (HONG KONG) [B01345]
TOP CUTTERS:
-391,400 sh (-0.14pp) -> ORIENT SECURITIES (HONG KONG) [B01900]
-139,510 sh (-0.05pp) -> FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955]
-100,000 sh (-0.04pp) -> GUOTAI JUNAN SECURITIES (HONG [B01565]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 11,223,300 sh = 4.06% of the company (-1,123,700 sh / -0.41pp since 2026-09-07).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 12.10% of today's turnover (meaningful), and it is falling vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. SHORTS COVERING - heavy but fading; covering can itself support the price.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$2.1M vs 5d avg HK$2.9M; 0.005% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/MED] Liquidity fading: last 10d avg volume -52% vs prior 10d — participation drying up.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.34 -> liquid.
[MOMENTUM/HIGH] Price < MA20 < MA50 — bearish trend alignment.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 7.3% of price — very high volatility.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: proportional (same crowd, more of it). Price is 14% up its 52w range.
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: NEUTRAL. A fundamental catalyst is in play.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 7%)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 92.0 HKD. Recent tape: 20d -28.0%, 5d -14.0%. Both volume and price are weakening (interest drying up). Proportional (same crowd, more of it); price sits 14% up the 52w range. Headline tone is neutral with a fundamental catalyst in play. Bottom line: LEANING BEARISH but not a clean setup — the tilt is real but not confirmed. Treat it as a starter position at most and let the dominant signal (flow or a price break) confirm before adding.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d -28.0% / 5d -14.0%, RSI 66, downtrend (MA5<MA20<MA50); price 14% up its 52w range.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 86.48-90.50 on weakness | stop 79.77 | T1 105.36 (R:R ~1.4:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 110.55 (+20.2%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 105.36 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 139.60 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 7.3% of price; a stop-out is ~13.2% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 7.3%) -> half size, wider stops | CCASS non-custodian seats net trimming over ~14d (-642,721 sh) -> holders reducing | mainland (southbound) trimming -1,123,700 sh -> committed demand leaving
ENTRY VERDICT: [STARTER ONLY] LEANING BEARISH but not confirmed: starter size only if 86.48-90.50 holds, add above 110.55. Stop 79.77; keep it small until flow/price agree.