中际旭创
Price 1,072.00 HKD | 1d 0.9% | 5d -8.7% | 20d 7.7% | RSI 58
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.11%
Turnover value: 13.32 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -0.60
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): -30%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): -30%
dValue/dVol ratio: 0.99
Block days (20d): 2
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.018
Float / Total cap: 671.9 / 12,627.2 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.11% traded (about 1 in 948 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$13.32亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$12627.2亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.11%. The thin pool (vs HK$671.9亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
CAVEAT: HK$12627亿 total cap is a LARGE company - turnover % naturally
looks low for big floats, and that is NOT illiquidity; check the
Tradeability (Amihud) and Pool-size lines below, which are absolute.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER COOLING - participation fading
WHY average daily volume is 30% below the prior 10 sessions (~0.70x): fewer players engaged than before, so follow-through is less reliable.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 1,420,720 shares/day vs 2,024,709 in the prior 10d (-30%).
money per 10d: HK$16.32亿 now vs HK$23.16亿 before (-30%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER Weakly buyers - price up but on flat/fading volume = thin drift, fragile.
WHY 20d price change is +7.7% (5d -8.7%) while 10v10 volume is -30% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -0.60 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d 0.9% / 5d -8.7% / 20d 7.7% | Amihud 0.02 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BULLISH tape] deep book, rising tape - depth supports the move.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER 10-day volume within normal range = NO structural change in how much trades
2 block days in 20 = occasional large prints only
DRILL the 2 block day(s) (>2x the prior 20d base) fell on 2026-09-07, 2026-09-11.
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence high - 2 institutional vs 0 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): -30% vs -30% = ratio 0.99 -> scaled together; ticket size unchanged.
· [2] block prints (20d): 2 day(s) above 2x base -> occasional large orders.
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = CCB INTERNATIONAL SECURITI [B01813] +720,000 sh (+1.14pp; INSTITUTIONAL bank/custodian seat).
· next: BRIGHT SMART SECURITIES IN [B01668] +215,200 sh (other).
· biggest cutter: GOLDMAN SACHS (ASIA) SECUR [B01451] -706,537 sh (-1.13pp; institutional).
· [4] mainland (southbound, largely institutional/quasi): +2,758,450 sh over ~30d -> committed demand building.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER SMALL float - only 5% free to trade.
Fewer shares to absorb demand, so the same turnover moves price
MORE: squeezes fly up, air pockets fall fast. Exciting and dangerous.
DRILL free-float HK$671.9亿 of a HK$12627.2亿 total cap (5% free, 95% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.02 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 3/3 HK$13.32亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 1/3 10v10 -30% (fading)
TOTAL 7/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 1.98% of free float changes hands per day - looks low, but this is a LARGE cap: a big float dilutes the % (activity is relative to size, so it is NOT scored).
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: fading
VERDICT: HEALTHY (7/9) - the weak link is FRESHNESS (10v10 -30% (fading)), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: borrowed supply heavy & building (short 34%) -> fragile bid; mainland adding -> committed demand.
TRADE READ: Weak drift up (price up on flat/fading volume) - thin conviction; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 33.87% of turnover (building) | mainland = 9.38% held (+4.4pp/30d)
READ ~34% of the tape is borrowed supply and it's rising into a falling price - the selling is partly short-driven, so the bid stays fragile now but can snap back hard once shorts stop adding.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 1,072.00
1d / 5d: 0.9% / -8.7%
20d / 50d: 7.7% / —
RSI-14: 57.7
ATR-14: 74.43 (6.9% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER REVERSING DOWN (5d pace negative, 20d was not).
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -8.7% over 5 days = -1.74%/day; 20d +7.7% over 20 days = +0.39%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -1.74%/day · 20d +0.39%/day · 50d n/a/day | MA20 slope +5.2%/10d · MA50 slope n/a/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER QUIET DRIFT DOWN (weak selling, no urgency).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -8.7% with 10d/10d volume -30% and today's volume -0.6σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER MID-RANGE - within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean (not stretched).
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 74.43 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 1,078.60: -0.6% (-0.1 ATR) below
· vs MA20 1,135.35: -5.6% (-0.9 ATR) below
· RSI-14 57.7: neutral, 40-60 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 36% up (960.00-1,270.00): middle of the range
· MA20 slope +5.2%/10d · MA50 slope n/a/10d (mean rising)
READ Within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean - mid-range, no stretch either way.
SO WHAT: no positional edge - let price break a level (mean reclaim or range break) before acting.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 1,250.00 (RSI 63) vs prior 1,203.00 (RSI 64) -> RSI confirmed the high (higher high, RSI not lower)
· lows: recent 1,028.00 (RSI 43) vs prior 1,006.00 (RSI 50) -> no lower low this half (price above the prior trough)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta -0.42 = the stock normally moves about -0.42% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did -11.4% = market +0.4% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific -11.8%.
DRILL R2 0.00 over 44d - 0% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure n/a insufficient MA history
Participation 1/3 10v10 -30% (drying up)
Room to run 3/3 -0.9 ATR from MA20 - mid-range, RSI 58
TOTAL 4/6
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: HEALTHY (4/6) - the weak link is PARTICIPATION (10v10 -30% (drying up)), so the move is capped there. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story.
TRADE READ: The move is DOWN but on light volume (weak drift, no urgency); so there is little force either way - wait for a volume or level break.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [QUIET DRIFT DOWN]
NOTE: Slow bleed with no urgency - no momentum edge either way.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: BULLISH (score +25/100).
NARRATIVE SCORE: +25/100 [MILDLY BULLISH]
DRILL 1 bullish vs 0 bearish headline(s) of 1 (last 30d) | bull theme: OTHER | bear theme: -.
READ News flow leans positive but not decisively (100% bullish) - supportive, with the other side still present.
SUMMARY (last 30 days):
Recent news tone is mixed. fundamentals news (revenue/ARR/earnings) is moving the story. Net effect on near-term sentiment is roughly NEUTRAL.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: the GROWTH story (revenue / ARR keeps inflecting and the path to profit shortens); ANALYST validation (upgrades and target hikes give buyers cover to add).
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: no clear bear narrative in the current headlines - little to argue against the story.
DEMAND READ: Clean bullish demand story - buyers have the narrative to themselves right now; little on the other side of the tape.
[OTHER]
- 專家股份策略追蹤｜看好中際旭創3308出貨增長 推介石藥集團1093 - TVB (16 Sep 2026 · TVB)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [OTHER] 專家股份策略追蹤｜看好中際旭創3308出貨增長 推介石藥集團1093 - TVB
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· 專家股份策略追蹤｜看好中際旭創3308出貨增長 推介石藥集團1093 - TVB (16 Sep 2026 · TVB)
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: stable
Verdict: STABLE LIQUIDITY
Ticket size: proportional (same crowd, more of it)
This week vs month: 0.65
IN PLAIN WORDS: STEADY, NO CHANGE. Same flow as before - no new money pushing either way.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = CCB INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES L [B01813] +720,000 sh (+1.14pp; now 1.14%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 99 seat(s) built, 40 trimmed, net TRIMMING overall (-7,300 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+720,000 sh (+1.14pp) -> CCB INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES L [B01813]
+215,200 sh (+0.35pp) -> BRIGHT SMART SECURITIES INTERN [B01668]
+33,850 sh (+0.05pp) -> CITIC SECURITIES BROKERAGE (HK [B01228]
TOP CUTTERS:
-706,537 sh (-1.13pp) -> GOLDMAN SACHS (ASIA) SECURITIE [B01451]
-653,100 sh (-1.04pp) -> CHINA INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL CO [B01654]
-393,031 sh (-0.62pp) -> UBS SECURITIES HONG KONG LTD [B01161]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 5,887,650 sh = 9.38% of the company (+2,758,450 sh / +4.40pp since 2026-09-07).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 33.87% of today's turnover (HEAVY), and it is rising vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. BEARS PRESSING - shorts are active and building.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$4.51億 vs 5d avg HK$2.37億; 1.131% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/HIGH] 2 block-volume days (>2x base) in last 20d: 2026-09-07, 2026-09-11 — institutional-size prints.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.02 -> liquid.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 6.9% of price — very high volatility.
ANALYST NOTES
* Structure: only 5% of cap is free-floating — thin float amplifies moves both ways; squeezes up, air pockets down.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: proportional (same crowd, more of it). Price is 36% up its 52w range.
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: NEUTRAL.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 7%)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 1072.0 HKD. Recent tape: 20d +7.7%, 5d -8.7%. Flows are steady with no regime change. Proportional (same crowd, more of it); price sits 36% up the 52w range. Headline tone is neutral. Bottom line: NO CLEAN EDGE. The signals roughly cancel out, so there is nothing to do here right now — it's a 'watch, don't touch' name until either the flow steps up or price breaks a level worth trading.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d +7.7% / 5d -8.7%, RSI 58, no clean trend; price 36% up its 52w range.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 1027.34-1072.00 on weakness | stop 952.91 | T1 1220.86 (R:R ~1.3:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 1328.61 (+23.9%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 1220.86 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 1270.00 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 6.9% of price; a stop-out is ~11.1% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 6.9%) -> half size, wider stops | tight float 5% -> squeezes fast both ways | CCASS non-custodian seats net trimming over ~14d (-850,451 sh) -> holders reducing | mainland (southbound) adding +2,758,450 sh -> committed dip demand | short 34% and building -> supply overhang, dips can get flushed
ENTRY VERDICT: [NO CLEAN ENTRY] NO EDGE at 1072.00: signals cancel and the price is not near a clean trigger - stay flat until it bases and reclaims 1328.61.