海致科技集团
Price 38.82 HKD | 1d -2.2% | 5d -8.7% | 20d -31.4% | RSI 47
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.02%
Turnover value: 0.03 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -1.49
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): -46%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): -51%
dValue/dVol ratio: 1.11
Block days (20d): 0
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 1.050
Float / Total cap: 156.9 / 156.9 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.02% traded (about 1 in 4485 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$0.03亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$156.9亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.02%. The thin pool (vs HK$156.9亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER COOLING - participation fading
WHY average daily volume is 46% below the prior 10 sessions (~0.54x): fewer players engaged than before, so follow-through is less reliable.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 1,066,473 shares/day vs 1,986,896 in the prior 10d (-46%).
money per 10d: HK$0.46亿 now vs HK$0.94亿 before (-51%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER Weakly sellers - price down on flat/fading volume = interest dying (exhaustion).
WHY 20d price change is -31.4% (5d -8.7%) while 10v10 volume is -46% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -1.49 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d -2.2% / 5d -8.7% / 20d -31.4% | Amihud 1.05 (moderate impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BEARISH tape] deep book, falling tape - easy to exit, but no long edge here.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER volume 46% over a full 10-day window = structure draining away persistently
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER RETAIL-LEANING (confidence moderate - 0 institutional vs 1 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): -51% vs -46% = ratio 1.11 -> scaled together; ticket size unchanged.
· [2] block prints (20d): none -> no single large prints; flow looks ordinary/retail.
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = USMART SECURITIES LTD [B02159] +65,800 sh (+0.01pp; RETAIL online-broker seat).
· next: HANG SENG SECURITIES LTD [B01284] +55,800 sh (institutional).
· biggest cutter: TIGER BROKERS (HK) GLOBAL [B02142] -54,800 sh (-0.01pp; retail-broker).
· [4] mainland (southbound): -1,505,600 sh over ~30d -> committed demand leaving.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER BROAD float - 100% free to trade.
Plenty of supply, so squeezes are hard to sustain - but rallies
need more real buying to keep going. Calmer.
DRILL free-float HK$156.9亿 of a HK$156.9亿 total cap (100% free, 0% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 2/3 Amihud 1.05 - moderate impact: a big order moves the price
Pool size (HK$/day) 1/3 HK$0.03亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 1/3 10v10 -46% (fading)
TOTAL 4/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.02% of free float changes hands per day - this is how much of the tradeable supply actually turns over.
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: fading
VERDICT: ADEQUATE (4/9) - the weak link is FRESHNESS (10v10 -46% (fading)), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: mainland trimming -> committed demand leaving.
TRADE READ: Grinding lower (price down on flat/fading volume) - exhaustion, not panic; and depth is middling - tradeable with patience, not unlimited size.
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 5.32% of turnover (fading) | mainland = 1.74% held (-0.4pp/30d)
READ mainland has been trimming (-0.4pp) - committed demand leaving, a liquidity-quality negative.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 38.82
1d / 5d: -2.2% / -8.7%
20d / 50d: -31.4% / 21.7%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 39.66 / 44.16 / 43.98
RSI-14: 47.4
ATR-14: 3.09 (8.0% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER STEADY DOWN.
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -8.7% over 5 days = -1.73%/day; 20d -31.4% over 20 days = -1.57%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -1.73%/day · 20d -1.57%/day · 50d +0.43%/day | MA20 slope -11.2%/10d · MA50 slope +2.3%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER QUIET DRIFT DOWN (weak selling, no urgency).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -8.7% with 10d/10d volume -46% and today's volume -1.5σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER BELOW the mean - pullback / weak positioning.
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 3.09 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 39.66: -2.1% (-0.3 ATR) below
· vs MA20 44.16: -12.1% (-1.7 ATR) below
· vs MA50 43.98: -11.7% (-1.7 ATR) below
· RSI-14 47.4: neutral, 40-60 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 13% up (21.44-154.10): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope -11.2%/10d · MA50 slope +2.3%/10d (mean falling)
READ Below the mean inside a falling structure: not 'cheap', but meaningfully stretched to the downside - a bounce can come, yet only a reclaim of the MA20 repairs the trend.
SO WHAT: weak, not cheap - treat a bounce as tradeable only once price RECLAIMS the MA20; until then the trend is still down.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 46.50 (RSI 51) vs prior 56.65 (RSI 63) -> no higher high this half (price below the prior peak)
· lows: recent 38.80 (RSI 39) vs prior 40.28 (RSI 38) -> RSI confirmed the low (lower low, RSI not higher)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta 1.61 = the stock normally moves about 1.61% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did -7.3% = market -1.4% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific -5.9%.
DRILL R2 0.02 over 59d - 2% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 2/3 mixed MA stack, but the mean is falling - structure still forming
Participation 1/3 10v10 -46% (drying up)
Room to run 2/3 -1.7 ATR from MA20 - moderately extended, RSI 47
TOTAL 5/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: ADEQUATE (5/9) - the weak link is PARTICIPATION (10v10 -46% (drying up)), so the move is capped there. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story.
TRADE READ: The move is DOWN but on light volume (weak drift, no urgency); so there is little force either way - wait for a volume or level break.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [QUIET DRIFT DOWN]
NOTE: Slow bleed with no urgency - no momentum edge either way.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: MIXED/NEUTRAL (score +0/100).
NARRATIVE SCORE: +0/100 [NO CLEAR NARRATIVE]
DRILL 0 bullish vs 0 bearish headline(s) of 1 (last 30d) | bull theme: - | bear theme: -.
READ No clearly bullish or bearish headline in the last 30 days - sentiment is neutral; there is no narrative edge to trade on.
SUMMARY (last 30 days):
Recent news tone is mixed. News flow is light; no single dominant driver. Net effect on near-term sentiment is roughly NEUTRAL.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: the AI-COMPUTE / domestic-substitution theme (local chips and models are the secular demand driver).
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: no clear bear narrative in the current headlines - little to argue against the story.
DEMAND READ: Clean bullish demand story - buyers have the narrative to themselves right now; little on the other side of the tape.
[OTHER]
- 海致科技集團(02706) 公司智能體業務半年激增135.6% 產業路線維持高景氣 (22 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [OTHER] 海致科技集團(02706) 公司智能體業務半年激增135.6% 產業路線維持高景氣
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· 海致科技集團(02706) 公司智能體業務半年激增135.6% 產業路線維持高景氣 (22 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: step-down
Verdict: FADING (exhaustion)
Ticket size: proportional (same crowd, more of it)
This week vs month: 0.34
IN PLAIN WORDS: LOW ENERGY. Little is happening; no strong buyer or seller. Nothing to trade on.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = USMART SECURITIES LTD [B02159] +65,800 sh (+0.01pp; now 0.04%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 46 seat(s) built, 23 trimmed, net TRIMMING overall (-40,800 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+65,800 sh (+0.01pp) -> USMART SECURITIES LTD [B02159]
+55,800 sh (+0.01pp) -> HANG SENG SECURITIES LTD [B01284]
+51,800 sh (+0.02pp) -> LIVERMORE HOLDINGS LTD [B02120]
TOP CUTTERS:
-54,800 sh (-0.01pp) -> TIGER BROKERS (HK) GLOBAL LTD [B02142]
-32,200 sh (-0.01pp) -> SOCIETE GENERALE [C00111]
-25,300 sh (-0.01pp) -> INTERACTIVE BROKERS HONG KONG [B01590]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 7,085,215 sh = 1.74% of the company (-1,505,600 sh / -0.37pp since 2026-09-07).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 5.32% of today's turnover (light-moderate), and it is falling vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. NORMAL - some short activity, nothing extreme.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$0.2M vs 5d avg HK$0.5M; 0.000% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/MED] Liquidity fading: last 10d avg volume -46% vs prior 10d — participation drying up.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 1.05 -> moderate.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 8.0% of price — very high volatility.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: proportional (same crowd, more of it). Price is 13% up its 52w range.
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: NEUTRAL.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 8%)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 38.8 HKD. Recent tape: 20d -31.4%, 5d -8.7%. Both volume and price are weakening (interest drying up). Proportional (same crowd, more of it); price sits 13% up the 52w range. Headline tone is neutral. Bottom line: NO CLEAN EDGE. The signals roughly cancel out, so there is nothing to do here right now — it's a 'watch, don't touch' name until either the flow steps up or price breaks a level worth trading.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d -31.4% / 5d -8.7%, RSI 47, no clean trend; price 13% up its 52w range.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 34.81-36.66 on weakness | stop 31.72 | T1 45.00 (R:R ~1.7:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 48.74 (+25.6%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 45.00 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 61.00 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 8.0% of price; a stop-out is ~18.3% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 8.0%) -> half size, wider stops | CCASS non-custodian seats net building over ~14d (+224,000 sh) -> real holders adding | mainland (southbound) trimming -1,505,600 sh -> committed demand leaving
ENTRY VERDICT: [NO CLEAN ENTRY] NO EDGE at 38.82: signals cancel and the price is not near a clean trigger - stay flat until it bases and reclaims 48.74.