胜宏科技
Price 195.10 HKD | 1d -1.2% | 5d -10.4% | 20d -2.9% | RSI 67
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.06%
Turnover value: 1.06 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -1.53
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): 20%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): 26%
dValue/dVol ratio: —
Block days (20d): 0
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.062
Float / Total cap: 215.1 / 1,917.4 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.06% traded (about 1 in 1808 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$1.06亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$1917.4亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.06%. The thin pool (vs HK$215.1亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
CAVEAT: HK$1917亿 total cap is a LARGE company - turnover % naturally
looks low for big floats, and that is NOT illiquidity; check the
Tradeability (Amihud) and Pool-size lines below, which are absolute.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER FRESHENING - new interest arriving
WHY average daily volume is +20% vs the prior 10 sessions (~1.20x): more people showing up, a genuine pick-up rather than churn.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 3,206,586 shares/day vs 2,665,965 in the prior 10d (+20%).
money per 10d: HK$6.82亿 now vs HK$5.41亿 before (+26%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER SELLERS - price DOWN on rising volume = supply being dumped (bearish).
WHY 20d price change is -2.9% (5d -10.4%) while 10v10 volume is +20% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -1.53 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d -1.2% / 5d -10.4% / 20d -2.9% | Amihud 0.06 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BEARISH tape] deep book, falling tape - easy to exit, but no long edge here.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER 10-day volume within normal range = NO structural change in how much trades
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence high - 2 institutional vs 0 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): shift under 25% -> too flat to read ticket size from this alone.
· [2] block prints (20d): none -> no single large prints; flow looks ordinary/retail.
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG S [B01274] +405,803 sh (+0.37pp; INSTITUTIONAL bank/custodian seat).
· next: UBS SECURITIES HONG KONG L [B01161] +182,525 sh (institutional).
· biggest cutter: FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIO [B01955] -444,719 sh (-0.41pp; retail-broker).
· [4] mainland (southbound, largely institutional/quasi): +1,271,500 sh over ~30d -> committed demand building.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER SMALL float - only 11% free to trade.
Fewer shares to absorb demand, so the same turnover moves price
MORE: squeezes fly up, air pockets fall fast. Exciting and dangerous.
DRILL free-float HK$215.1亿 of a HK$1917.4亿 total cap (11% free, 89% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.06 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 2/3 HK$1.06亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 3/3 10v10 +20% (building)
TOTAL 8/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.49% of free float changes hands per day - looks low, but this is a LARGE cap: a big float dilutes the % (activity is relative to size, so it is NOT scored).
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: building
VERDICT: STRONG (8/9) - the weak link is POOL SIZE (HK$1.06亿 traded/day), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: shorts covering (short 32% but fading) -> adds a bid; mainland 27% & adding -> committed demand soaking float.
TRADE READ: Sellers are winning (price down on building volume) - this depth is being used to DISTRIBUTE: an orderly decline, not a floor; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 31.64% of turnover (fading) | mainland = 26.82% held (+1.1pp/30d)
READ ~32% of the tape is borrowed supply but it's fading - shorts are covering, which itself adds a bid; the tape is getting cleaner. mainland keeps adding (+1.1pp) and now owns 27% - committed demand soaking up float, so the smaller remaining supply makes moves sharper both ways.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 195.10
1d / 5d: -1.2% / -10.4%
20d / 50d: -2.9% / -15.2%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 200.54 / 205.03 / 215.25
RSI-14: 66.7
ATR-14: 12.79 (6.6% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER ACCELERATING DOWN.
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -10.4% over 5 days = -2.08%/day; 20d -2.9% over 20 days = -0.15%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -2.08%/day · 20d -0.15%/day · 50d -0.30%/day | MA20 slope -3.4%/10d · MA50 slope -1.9%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER SELLING PRESSURE (price down on rising volume - distribution).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -10.4% with 10d/10d volume +20% and today's volume -1.5σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER MID-RANGE - within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean (not stretched).
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 12.79 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 200.54: -2.7% (-0.4 ATR) below
· vs MA20 205.03: -4.8% (-0.8 ATR) below
· vs MA50 215.25: -9.4% (-1.6 ATR) below
· RSI-14 66.7: firm, 60-70 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 10% up (168.30-438.20): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope -3.4%/10d · MA50 slope -1.9%/10d (mean falling)
READ Within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean - mid-range, no stretch either way.
SO WHAT: no positional edge - let price break a level (mean reclaim or range break) before acting.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 225.20 (RSI 54) vs prior 216.20 (RSI 46) -> RSI confirmed the high (higher high, RSI not lower)
· lows: recent 194.10 (RSI 42) vs prior 191.50 (RSI 39) -> no lower low this half (price above the prior trough)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta 0.62 = the stock normally moves about 0.62% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did -11.0% = market -2.0% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific -9.0%.
DRILL R2 0.01 over 59d - 1% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 3/3 MA5<MA20<MA50 with the mean falling - clean downtrend structure
Participation 3/3 10v10 +20% (building)
Room to run 3/3 -0.8 ATR from MA20 - mid-range, RSI 67
TOTAL 9/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: STRONG (9/9) - no weak link - the move is sound on every factor. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story; pinned near 52w lows.
TRADE READ: The move is DOWN on rising volume (real distribution); so a strong score cuts AGAINST longs - 'healthy' here means the decline is orderly, not that it will bounce.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [SELLING PRESSURE]
NOTE: Supply is hitting the tape - the momentum is down, not up.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: BEARISH (score -25/100). Active themes: SUPPLY.
NARRATIVE SCORE: -25/100 [MILDLY BEARISH]
DRILL 0 bullish vs 1 bearish headline(s) of 4 (last 30d) | bull theme: - | bear theme: SUPPLY.
READ News flow leans negative (100% bearish) - the narrative is working against a long, but not decisively.
SUMMARY (last 30 days):
Recent news tone is mixed. There is an active SUPPLY/DILUTION thread (placement / fundraising or convertible issuance), which adds float and can cap near-term upside. Net effect on near-term sentiment is roughly NEUTRAL.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: the AI-COMPUTE / domestic-substitution theme (local chips and models are the secular demand driver); fresh-LISTING scarcity (a limited float plus a 'must-own' brand squeezes the supply).
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: the DILUTION overhang (placements / convertibles add float and cap the price until the new supply clears).
DEMAND READ: Two narratives are fighting: the bull case (ai-compute / domestic-substitution) vs the bear case (dilution). Likely two-way until one side wins.
[SUPPLY / DILUTION]
- 【今日IPO】胜宏科技赴港招股 AI PCB 市占率全球第一 (13 Apr 2026 · Yahoo 財經)
- 勝宏科技(2476) IPO招股詳情｜集資最多175億 AI PCB龍頭入場費21200元 A股水位58% (16 Apr 2026 · 香港經濟日報HKET)
[OTHER]
- 本港最大實物黃金ETF與今年最大IPO同日上市 港股市場上演好事成雙 (22 Apr 2026 · 香港商报)
- 勝宏科技招股籌175億 孖展暫超購2.7倍 (14 Apr 2026 · 星島頭條)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [SUPPLY] 【今日IPO】胜宏科技赴港招股 AI PCB 市占率全球第一
* [SUPPLY] 勝宏科技(2476) IPO招股詳情｜集資最多175億 AI PCB龍頭入場費21200元 A股水位58%
* [OTHER] 本港最大實物黃金ETF與今年最大IPO同日上市 港股市場上演好事成雙
* [OTHER] 勝宏科技招股籌175億 孖展暫超購2.7倍
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· 【今日IPO】胜宏科技赴港招股 AI PCB 市占率全球第一 (13 Apr 2026 · Yahoo 財經)
· 勝宏科技(2476) IPO招股詳情｜集資最多175億 AI PCB龍頭入場費21200元 A股水位58% (16 Apr 2026 · 香港經濟日報HKET)
· 本港最大實物黃金ETF與今年最大IPO同日上市 港股市場上演好事成雙 (22 Apr 2026 · 香港商报)
· 勝宏科技招股籌175億 孖展暫超購2.7倍 (14 Apr 2026 · 星島頭條)
THEME TAGS: SUPPLY
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: stable
Verdict: STABLE LIQUIDITY
Ticket size: n/a (volume flat)
This week vs month: 0.70
IN PLAIN WORDS: STEADY, NO CHANGE. Same flow as before - no new money pushing either way.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG SECUR [B01274] +405,803 sh (+0.37pp; now 1.38%).
over 2026-09-19 -> 2026-10-03 (~14d): 60 seat(s) built, 58 trimmed, net ADDING overall (+1,100 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+405,803 sh (+0.37pp) -> MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG SECUR [B01274]
+182,525 sh (+0.17pp) -> UBS SECURITIES HONG KONG LTD [B01161]
+107,300 sh (+0.09pp) -> CMB INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES L [B01901]
TOP CUTTERS:
-444,719 sh (-0.41pp) -> FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955]
-149,556 sh (-0.14pp) -> MERRILL LYNCH FAR EAST LTD [B01224]
-103,850 sh (-0.09pp) -> CHIEF SECURITIES LTD [B01584]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 29,570,335 sh = 26.82% of the company (+1,271,500 sh / +1.15pp since 2026-09-08).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Short-selling analysis (daily flow + outstanding short interest) - see SECTION 5 below.
SECTION 5 - SHORT SELLING (how big is the bear case - fuel or confirmation?)
Short interest (outstanding): 4,901,789 sh ≈ HK$10.59億 (0.50% of issued, 4.45% of float) [SFC 25/09/2026, weekly]
Week-on-week: +9% (building) [4,483,457 → 4,901,789 sh]
Short flow (today): HK$33.5M vs 5d avg HK$89.1M (falling); 31.64% of turnover; 0.084% of ALL market short [ETNet 02/10/2026]
Short activity trend: picking up [5d 26.1% vs prior 10d 9.0% of turnover]
Days to cover: 1.7 days of normal volume (20d); short book churns ~9%/day
Q. How big is the bear bet, really?
ANSWER 0.50% of issued shares / 4.4% of float are sold short - light.
WHY short interest = borrowed shares sold and NOT yet bought back. Sized
against the FLOAT (free supply) it shows squeeze pressure: every 1% of
float short is latent buy-side demand waiting to cover.
Q. Building, or being covered?
ANSWER short interest building (w/w +9%), daily flow falling, short-% of turnover picking up.
WHY w/w change is the direction of conviction. Rising short + rising short-%
= bears adding; falling both = a squeeze or shorts taking profit.
Q. Could shorts be forced to cover? (squeeze potential)
ANSWER 1.7 days to cover - low - shorts can exit without a scramble. The book turns over ~9%/day, so it is mostly sticky, committed bears.
WHY days-to-cover = short interest / normal daily volume - the trading days a
short needs to buy back. More days = a bigger squeeze once price turns up.
Q. Are the shorts right so far? (short behaviour vs price)
ANSWER price down on the week, short side building - shorts adding into weakness - bears pressing and being paid; short flow and momentum agree (bearish).
WHY what matters is not the short level alone but whether bears are winning (price
falling WITH them) or losing (price rising AGAINST them).
SHORT-SELLING VERDICT: [SHORTS BUILDING - BEARISH CONFIRMATION]
bears are adding and price is falling - short flow and momentum agree.
(squeeze lens: 4.4% of float short x 1.7d to cover; ~9%/day churn.)
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.06 -> liquid.
[MOMENTUM/HIGH] Price < MA20 < MA50 — bearish trend alignment.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 6.6% of price — very high volatility.
ANALYST NOTES
* Overhang: a SUPPLY/dilution thread is live (placement or CB). This is a structural cap on upside — new float has to be absorbed before rallies stick.
* Structure: only 11% of cap is free-floating — thin float amplifies moves both ways; squeezes up, air pockets down.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: undifferentiated flow. Price is near 52w lows (capitulation/bounce zone).
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: NEUTRAL. SUPPLY overhang is live (caps upside).
RISK: volatility high (ATR 7%)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 195.1 HKD. Recent tape: 20d -2.9%, 5d -10.4%. Flows are steady with no regime change. Undifferentiated flow; price sits 9% up the 52w range. Headline tone is neutral with a live supply/dilution overhang that structurally caps upside. Bottom line: LEANING BEARISH but not a clean setup — the tilt is real but not confirmed. Treat it as a starter position at most and let the dominant signal (flow or a price break) confirm before adding. Key caveat: placement/dilution can cap or reverse rallies; near 52w lows = weak structural positioning.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d -2.9% / 5d -10.4%, RSI 67, downtrend (MA5<MA20<MA50); price 9% up its 52w range.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 185.22-192.90 on weakness | stop 172.43 | T1 220.69 (R:R ~1.4:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 234.16 (+20.0%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 220.69 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 233.00 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 6.6% of price; a stop-out is ~11.6% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 6.6%) -> half size, wider stops | tight float 11% -> squeezes fast both ways | CCASS non-custodian seats net building over ~14d (+511,660 sh) -> real holders adding | mainland (southbound) adding +1,271,500 sh -> committed dip demand | short 32% but fading -> covering adds a bid
ENTRY VERDICT: [STARTER ONLY] LEANING BEARISH but not confirmed: starter size only if 185.22-192.90 holds, add above 234.16. Stop 172.43; keep it small until flow/price agree.