万科企业
Price 2.69 HKD | 1d -3.6% | 5d 5.5% | 20d 14.2% | RSI 15
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.09%
Turnover value: 0.29 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -0.70
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): 332%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): 383%
dValue/dVol ratio: 1.15
Block days (20d): 9
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.499
Float / Total cap: 59.4 / 320.9 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.09% traded (about 1 in 1101 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$0.29亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$320.9亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.09%. The thin pool (vs HK$59.4亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER VERY FRESH - activity exploding
WHY average daily volume over the last 10 sessions is +332% vs the prior 10 - about 4.3x the old pace. That is many NEW participants arriving, not the usual crowd recycling; fresh flow is what makes a move matter.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 93,829,124 shares/day vs 21,695,142 in the prior 10d (+332%).
money per 10d: HK$2.48亿 now vs HK$0.51亿 before (+383%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER BUYERS - price UP on rising volume = new buyers paying up (bullish).
WHY 20d price change is +14.2% (5d +5.5%) while 10v10 volume is +332% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -0.70 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d -3.6% / 5d 5.5% / 20d 14.2% | Amihud 0.50 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BULLISH tape] deep book, rising tape - depth supports the move.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER volume +332% over a full 10-day window = a SUSTAINED regime shift, not a blip
9 block days in 20 = big players active REPEATEDLY (systematic, not one-off)
DRILL the 9 block day(s) (>2x the prior 20d base) fell on 2026-09-23, 2026-09-24, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30.
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence high - 3 institutional vs 1 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): +383% vs +332% = ratio 1.15 -> the MONEY side moved more than the SHARE-COUNT side, i.e. bigger average trade tickets (institutional-size lots).
· [2] block prints (20d): 9 days above 2x base volume (2026-09-28, 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30) -> big single orders hit REPEATEDLY (institutional-size).
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIO [B01955] +5,463,100 sh (+0.24pp; RETAIL online-broker seat).
· next: PHILLIP SECURITIES (HONG K [B01345] +3,914,100 sh (retail-broker).
· biggest cutter: ABN AMRO CLEARING BANK N.V [C00113] -3,733,100 sh (-0.17pp; institutional).
· [4] mainland (southbound, largely institutional/quasi): +29,213,000 sh over ~30d -> committed demand building.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER SMALL float - only 18% free to trade.
Fewer shares to absorb demand, so the same turnover moves price
MORE: squeezes fly up, air pockets fall fast. Exciting and dangerous.
DRILL free-float HK$59.4亿 of a HK$320.9亿 total cap (18% free, 82% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.50 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 1/3 HK$0.29亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 3/3 10v10 +332% (exploding)
TOTAL 7/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.49% of free float changes hands per day - this is how much of the tradeable supply actually turns over.
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: exploding
VERDICT: HEALTHY (7/9) - the weak link is POOL SIZE (HK$0.29亿 traded/day), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: mainland 62% & adding -> committed demand soaking float; institutional-tone flow; repeat big-player prints.
TRADE READ: Buyers are winning (price up on building volume) - depth supports an orderly advance; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 3.74% of turnover (fading) | mainland = 62.18% held (+1.3pp/30d)
READ mainland keeps adding (+1.3pp) and now owns 62% - committed demand soaking up float, so the smaller remaining supply makes moves sharper both ways.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 2.69
1d / 5d: -3.6% / 5.5%
20d / 50d: 14.2% / 8.5%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 2.65 / 2.44 / 2.44
RSI-14: 15.0
ATR-14: 0.19 (6.9% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER ACCELERATING UP.
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d +5.5% over 5 days = +1.10%/day; 20d +14.2% over 20 days = +0.71%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d +1.10%/day · 20d +0.71%/day · 50d +0.17%/day | MA20 slope +3.6%/10d · MA50 slope +1.4%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER REAL MOMENTUM UP (price and participation rising together).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return +5.5% with 10d/10d volume +332% and today's volume -0.7σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER MID-RANGE - within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean (not stretched).
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 0.19 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 2.65: +1.4% (+0.2 ATR) above
· vs MA20 2.44: +10.1% (+1.3 ATR) above
· vs MA50 2.44: +10.3% (+1.3 ATR) above
· RSI-14 15.0: oversold, <30 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 17% up (2.12-5.46): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope +3.6%/10d · MA50 slope +1.4%/10d (mean rising)
READ Within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean - mid-range, no stretch either way.
SO WHAT: no positional edge - let price break a level (mean reclaim or range break) before acting.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 2.81 (RSI 67) vs prior 2.50 (RSI 56) -> RSI confirmed the high (higher high, RSI not lower)
· lows: recent 2.35 (RSI 50) vs prior 2.18 (RSI 36) -> no lower low this half (price above the prior trough)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta 1.34 = the stock normally moves about 1.34% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did +5.3% = market -4.3% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific +9.7%.
DRILL R2 0.19 over 59d - 19% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 3/3 MA5>MA20>MA50 with the mean rising - clean uptrend structure
Participation 3/3 10v10 +332% (building)
Room to run 3/3 +1.3 ATR from MA20 - mid-range, RSI 15
TOTAL 9/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: STRONG (9/9) - no weak link - the move is sound on every factor. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story; RSI 15 oversold.
TRADE READ: The move is UP and confirmed by rising participation; so the score says how cleanly it can CONTINUE - trade with the trend, buy pullbacks rather than chases.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [REAL MOMENTUM UP]
NOTE: Price and volume are rising together - the cleanest momentum state.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
(no recent news found in the last 30 days)
NARRATIVE SCORE: n/a - no headlines to score.
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: step-up
Verdict: ACCUMULATION (new conviction)
Ticket size: large-ticket / higher-priced (institutional tilt)
This week vs month: 1.66
IN PLAIN WORDS: MONEY IS COMING IN. More trading AND rising price = real buyers with conviction. The cleanest 'someone is building' signal this tool can see.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955] +5,463,100 sh (+0.24pp; now 1.74%).
over 2026-09-19 -> 2026-10-03 (~14d): 61 seat(s) built, 42 trimmed, net TRIMMING overall (-351,339 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+5,463,100 sh (+0.24pp) -> FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955]
+3,914,100 sh (+0.18pp) -> PHILLIP SECURITIES (HONG KONG) [B01345]
+1,850,000 sh (+0.09pp) -> CHINA INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL CO [B01654]
TOP CUTTERS:
-3,733,100 sh (-0.17pp) -> ABN AMRO CLEARING BANK N.V. [C00113]
-1,917,400 sh (-0.09pp) -> GF SECURITIES (HONG KONG) BROK [B01826]
-572,400 sh (-0.03pp) -> LONG BRIDGE HK LTD [B02195]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 1,372,198,734 sh = 62.18% of the company (+29,213,000 sh / +1.32pp since 2026-09-08).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Short-selling analysis (daily flow + outstanding short interest) - see SECTION 5 below.
SECTION 5 - SHORT SELLING (how big is the bear case - fuel or confirmation?)
Short interest (outstanding): 230,597,704 sh ≈ HK$5.64億 (1.93% of issued, 10.45% of float) [SFC 25/09/2026, weekly]
Week-on-week: +2% (flat) [225,597,060 → 230,597,704 sh]
Short flow (today): HK$1.1M vs 5d avg HK$9.6M (falling); 3.74% of turnover; 0.003% of ALL market short [ETNet 02/10/2026]
Short activity trend: picking up [5d 9.3% vs prior 10d 5.7% of turnover]
Days to cover: 4.0 days of normal volume (20d); short book churns ~2%/day
Q. How big is the bear bet, really?
ANSWER 1.93% of issued shares / 10.5% of float are sold short - light.
WHY short interest = borrowed shares sold and NOT yet bought back. Sized
against the FLOAT (free supply) it shows squeeze pressure: every 1% of
float short is latent buy-side demand waiting to cover.
Q. Building, or being covered?
ANSWER short interest flat (w/w +2%), daily flow falling, short-% of turnover picking up.
WHY w/w change is the direction of conviction. Rising short + rising short-%
= bears adding; falling both = a squeeze or shorts taking profit.
Q. Could shorts be forced to cover? (squeeze potential)
ANSWER 4.0 days to cover - elevated - covering could add a real bid. The book turns over ~2%/day, so it is mostly sticky, committed bears.
WHY days-to-cover = short interest / normal daily volume - the trading days a
short needs to buy back. More days = a bigger squeeze once price turns up.
Q. Are the shorts right so far? (short behaviour vs price)
ANSWER price up on the week, short side flat - short positioning is flat vs price - no short-driven edge either way.
WHY what matters is not the short level alone but whether bears are winning (price
falling WITH them) or losing (price rising AGAINST them).
SHORT-SELLING VERDICT: [MODERATE SHORT - NO CLEAR EDGE]
short activity is present but neither heavy nor lopsided; not a driver on its own.
(squeeze lens: 10.5% of float short x 4.0d to cover; ~2%/day churn.)
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/HIGH] Structural liquidity shift: last 10d avg volume +332% vs prior 10d — hands are turning over faster.
[LIQUIDITY/HIGH] 9 block-volume days (>2x base) in last 20d: 2026-09-24, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30 — institutional-size prints.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.50 -> liquid.
[MOMENTUM/HIGH] Price > MA20 > MA50 — bullish trend alignment.
[MOMENTUM/MED] 5d return +5.5% but volume below trend — momentum may be exhausting.
[MOMENTUM/MED] RSI14 = 15 — oversold, bounce potential.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 6.9% of price — very high volatility.
ANALYST NOTES
* Caveat: big *relative* volume shift (+332%) sits on a shallow pool (HK$0.29亿) — the % looks dramatic but real depth is limited; size positions small.
* Cross-check: both the size AND the per-trade value are rising -> this reads as real institutional accumulation, not just churn. Highest-conviction flow pattern this bot can detect from free data.
* Structure: only 18% of cap is free-floating — thin float amplifies moves both ways; squeezes up, air pockets down.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: FLOW and MOMENTUM AGREE (bullish): money is stepping in AND price is trending up. Cleanest long setup this tool flags — the tape is confirmed.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: large-ticket / higher-priced (institutional tilt). Price is 17% up its 52w range.
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: NEUTRAL.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 7%); RSI oversold (15)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 2.7 HKD. Recent tape: 20d +14.2%, 5d +5.5%. Money is arriving with conviction (accumulation profile). Large-ticket / higher-priced (institutional tilt); price sits 17% up the 52w range. Headline tone is neutral. Bottom line: NET BULLISH. Tape and story point the same way, so this is a 'buy the dip, manage the risk' name rather than a 'chase it' one. Let entries come to you on pullbacks and keep stops wide enough for the range (ATR 7%).
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d +14.2% / 5d +5.5%, RSI 15, uptrend (MA5>MA20>MA50); price 17% up its 52w range. Flow: ACCUMULATION.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 2.54-2.65 on weakness | stop 2.35 | T1 3.06 (R:R ~1.4:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 2.97 (+10.6%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 3.06 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 5.46 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 6.9% of price; a stop-out is ~12.5% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 6.9%) -> half size, wider stops | tight float 18% -> squeezes fast both ways | CCASS non-custodian seats net building over ~14d (+13,122,947 sh) -> real holders adding | mainland (southbound) adding +29,213,000 sh -> committed dip demand
ENTRY VERDICT: [BUY THE PULLBACK] GOOD ENTRY on weakness: buy the 2.54-2.65 zone (stop 2.35; first target 3.06; ~1.4:1). Trend/flow lean up; only invalidated below the stop.