碧桂园
Price 0.18 HKD | 1d -6.6% | 5d -1.1% | 20d -1.6% | RSI 40
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.32%
Turnover value: 0.27 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -0.81
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): 100%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): 99%
dValue/dVol ratio: 0.99
Block days (20d): 1
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.733
Float / Total cap: 86.1 / 86.1 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.32% traded (about 1 in 316 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$0.27亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$86.1亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.32%. The thin pool (vs HK$86.1亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER VERY FRESH - activity exploding
WHY average daily volume over the last 10 sessions is +100% vs the prior 10 - about 2.0x the old pace. That is many NEW participants arriving, not the usual crowd recycling; fresh flow is what makes a move matter.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 475,139,372 shares/day vs 237,768,230 in the prior 10d (+100%).
money per 10d: HK$0.88亿 now vs HK$0.44亿 before (+99%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER SELLERS - price DOWN on rising volume = supply being dumped (bearish).
WHY 20d price change is -1.6% (5d -1.1%) while 10v10 volume is +100% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -0.81 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d -6.6% / 5d -1.1% / 20d -1.6% | Amihud 0.73 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BEARISH tape] deep book, falling tape - easy to exit, but no long edge here.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER volume +100% over a full 10-day window = a SUSTAINED regime shift, not a blip
1 block days in 20 = occasional large prints only
DRILL the 1 block day(s) (>2x the prior 20d base) fell on 2026-09-30.
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence high - 2 institutional vs 0 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): +99% vs +100% = ratio 0.99 -> scaled together; ticket size unchanged.
· [2] block prints (20d): none -> no single large prints; flow looks ordinary/retail.
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = UBS SECURITIES HONG KONG L [B01161] +56,574,434 sh (+0.12pp; INSTITUTIONAL bank/custodian seat).
· next: PHILLIP SECURITIES (HONG K [B01345] +50,579,000 sh (retail-broker).
· biggest cutter: CHINA CITIC BANK INTERNATI [C00058] -122,724,632 sh (-0.27pp; institutional).
· [4] mainland (southbound, largely institutional/quasi): +375,910,000 sh over ~30d -> committed demand building.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER BROAD float - 100% free to trade.
Plenty of supply, so squeezes are hard to sustain - but rallies
need more real buying to keep going. Calmer.
DRILL free-float HK$86.1亿 of a HK$86.1亿 total cap (100% free, 0% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.73 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 1/3 HK$0.27亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 3/3 10v10 +100% (exploding)
TOTAL 7/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.32% of free float changes hands per day - this is how much of the tradeable supply actually turns over.
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: exploding
VERDICT: HEALTHY (7/9) - the weak link is POOL SIZE (HK$0.27亿 traded/day), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: mainland 22% & adding -> committed demand soaking float.
TRADE READ: Sellers are winning (price down on building volume) - this depth is being used to DISTRIBUTE: an orderly decline, not a floor; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 10.02% of turnover (fading) | mainland = 21.72% held (+0.8pp/30d)
READ a moderate 10% of turnover is borrowed supply (fading) - real but not dominant; it colours the tape rather than drives it. mainland keeps adding (+0.8pp) and now owns 22% - committed demand soaking up float, so the smaller remaining supply makes moves sharper both ways.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 0.18
1d / 5d: -6.6% / -1.1%
20d / 50d: -1.6% / -1.1%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 0.19 / 0.18 / 0.18
RSI-14: 40.0
ATR-14: 0.01 (5.4% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER REVERSING DOWN (5d pace negative, 20d was not).
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -1.1% over 5 days = -0.22%/day; 20d -1.6% over 20 days = -0.08%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -0.22%/day · 20d -0.08%/day · 50d -0.02%/day | MA20 slope -1.7%/10d · MA50 slope -0.2%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER NO CLEAN MOMENTUM (price and volume not aligned).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -1.1% with 10d/10d volume +100% and today's volume -0.8σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER MID-RANGE - within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean (not stretched).
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 0.01 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 0.19: -0.9% (-0.2 ATR) below
· vs MA20 0.18: +0.7% (+0.1 ATR) above
· vs MA50 0.18: +1.1% (+0.2 ATR) above
· RSI-14 40.0: weak, 30-40 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 4% up (0.17-0.65): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope -1.7%/10d · MA50 slope -0.2%/10d (mean falling)
READ Within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean - mid-range, no stretch either way.
SO WHAT: no positional edge - let price break a level (mean reclaim or range break) before acting.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 0.20 (RSI 61) vs prior 0.20 (RSI 60) -> no higher high this half (price below the prior peak)
· lows: recent 0.17 (RSI 43) vs prior 0.17 (RSI 38) -> no lower low this half (price above the prior trough)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta 1.33 = the stock normally moves about 1.33% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did +7.4% = market -1.2% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific +8.6%.
DRILL R2 0.14 over 59d - 14% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 2/3 MA5>MA20>MA50 but the mean is rising - uptrend intact, slope cooling
Participation 3/3 10v10 +100% (building)
Room to run 3/3 +0.1 ATR from MA20 - mid-range, RSI 40
TOTAL 8/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: STRONG (8/9) - the weak link is TREND STRUCTURE (MA5>MA20>MA50 but the mean is rising - uptrend intact, slope cooling), so the move is capped there. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story; pinned near 52w lows.
TRADE READ: Price and volume are not aligned - no clear direction; so there is no momentum edge regardless of the score.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [NO CLEAN MOMENTUM]
NOTE: Price and volume are not aligned - no momentum edge.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: MIXED/NEUTRAL (score +0/100). Active themes: FLOW.
NARRATIVE SCORE: +0/100 [NO CLEAR NARRATIVE]
DRILL 0 bullish vs 0 bearish headline(s) of 3 (last 30d) | bull theme: - | bear theme: -.
READ No clearly bullish or bearish headline in the last 30 days - sentiment is neutral; there is no narrative edge to trade on.
SUMMARY (last 30 days):
Recent news tone is bearish. index-inclusion / southbound flow is a positive demand driver; brokers/analysts are active (rating or target-price changes); there is downside/risk noise (sell-offs, selling or scrutiny). On balance, near-term narrative leans CAUTIOUS.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: ANALYST validation (upgrades and target hikes give buyers cover to add); the INDEX-INCLUSION / southbound story (once in Stock Connect, mainland and passive money become a new source of demand).
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: a STORY-DAMAGE narrative (scrutiny or a momentum break has holders questioning the thesis).
DEMAND READ: Two narratives are fighting: the bull case (analyst validation) vs the bear case (story-damage). Likely two-way until one side wins.
[FLOW / OWNERSHIP]
- 北水增持碧桂園 減持盈富基金 即時財經新聞 (23 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
- 北水增持碧桂園 減持商湯-W 即時財經新聞 (14 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
[OTHER]
- 彭博：中證監不受理碧桂園等內房強制可轉換債券備案 (08 Sep 2026 · Yahoo 財經)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [FLOW] 北水增持碧桂園 減持盈富基金 即時財經新聞
* [FLOW] 北水增持碧桂園 減持商湯-W 即時財經新聞
* [OTHER] 彭博：中證監不受理碧桂園等內房強制可轉換債券備案
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· 北水增持碧桂園 減持盈富基金 即時財經新聞 (23 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
· 彭博：中證監不受理碧桂園等內房強制可轉換債券備案 (08 Sep 2026 · Yahoo 財經)
· 北水增持碧桂園 減持商湯-W 即時財經新聞 (14 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
THEME TAGS: FLOW
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: step-up
Verdict: DISTRIBUTION (heavy churn)
Ticket size: proportional (same crowd, more of it)
This week vs month: 1.12
IN PLAIN WORDS: MONEY IS LEAVING. Heavy trading with falling price = sellers unloading into demand. Caution.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = UBS SECURITIES HONG KONG LTD [B01161] +56,574,434 sh (+0.12pp; now 4.52%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 68 seat(s) built, 46 trimmed, net ADDING overall (+65,677,030 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+56,574,434 sh (+0.12pp) -> UBS SECURITIES HONG KONG LTD [B01161]
+50,579,000 sh (+0.11pp) -> PHILLIP SECURITIES (HONG KONG) [B01345]
+21,470,000 sh (+0.05pp) -> ABN AMRO CLEARING BANK N.V. [C00113]
TOP CUTTERS:
-122,724,632 sh (-0.27pp) -> CHINA CITIC BANK INTERNATIONAL [C00058]
-12,795,000 sh (-0.03pp) -> TAI FUNG KUENTAI SECURITIES CO [B01623]
-5,821,000 sh (-0.02pp) -> CMB WING LUNG BANK LTD [C00042]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 10,163,874,942 sh = 21.72% of the company (+375,910,000 sh / +0.78pp since 2026-09-07).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 10.02% of today's turnover (meaningful), and it is falling vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. SHORTS COVERING - heavy but fading; covering can itself support the price.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$2.7M vs 5d avg HK$7.3M; 0.007% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/HIGH] Structural liquidity shift: last 10d avg volume +100% vs prior 10d — hands are turning over faster.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.73 -> liquid.
[MOMENTUM/HIGH] Price > MA20 > MA50 — bullish trend alignment.
ANALYST NOTES
* Caveat: big *relative* volume shift (+99%) sits on a shallow pool (HK$0.27亿) — the % looks dramatic but real depth is limited; size positions small.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: proportional (same crowd, more of it). Price is near 52w lows (capitulation/bounce zone).
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: BEARISH. Index/flow event is a driver. -> news confirms the bearish tape.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 5%)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 0.2 HKD. Recent tape: 20d -1.6%, 5d -1.1%. Shares are changing hands without lifting the price (distribution/churn). Proportional (same crowd, more of it); price sits 3% up the 52w range. Headline tone is bearish with an index/flow driver. Bottom line: LEANING BEARISH but not a clean setup — the tilt is real but not confirmed. Treat it as a starter position at most and let the dominant signal (flow or a price break) confirm before adding. Key caveat: near 52w lows = weak structural positioning.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d -1.6% / 5d -1.1%, RSI 40, uptrend (MA5>MA20>MA50); price 3% up its 52w range. Flow: DISTRIBUTION.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 0.18-0.18 on weakness | stop 0.17 | T1 0.20 (R:R ~1.3:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 0.20 (+8.1%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 0.20 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 0.23 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 5.4% of price; a stop-out is ~8.7% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: CCASS non-custodian seats net building over ~14d (+63,523,541 sh) -> real holders adding | mainland (southbound) adding +375,910,000 sh -> committed dip demand
ENTRY VERDICT: [STARTER ONLY] LEANING BEARISH but not confirmed: starter size only if 0.18-0.18 holds, add above 0.20. Stop 0.17; keep it small until flow/price agree.