融创中国
Price 0.62 HKD | 1d -4.6% | 5d -3.8% | 20d 11.6% | RSI 16
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.40%
Turnover value: 0.49 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -1.00
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): 128%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): 151%
dValue/dVol ratio: 1.18
Block days (20d): 4
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.273
Float / Total cap: 124.8 / 124.8 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.40% traded (about 1 in 253 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$0.49亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$124.8亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.40%. The thin pool (vs HK$124.8亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER VERY FRESH - activity exploding
WHY average daily volume over the last 10 sessions is +128% vs the prior 10 - about 2.3x the old pace. That is many NEW participants arriving, not the usual crowd recycling; fresh flow is what makes a move matter.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 460,507,396 shares/day vs 202,064,841 in the prior 10d (+128%).
money per 10d: HK$3.02亿 now vs HK$1.20亿 before (+151%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER BUYERS - price UP on rising volume = new buyers paying up (bullish).
WHY 20d price change is +11.6% (5d -3.8%) while 10v10 volume is +128% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -1.00 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d -4.6% / 5d -3.8% / 20d 11.6% | Amihud 0.27 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BULLISH tape] deep book, rising tape - depth supports the move.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER volume +128% over a full 10-day window = a SUSTAINED regime shift, not a blip
4 block days in 20 = occasional large prints only
DRILL the 4 block day(s) (>2x the prior 20d base) fell on 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-30.
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence high - 2 institutional vs 0 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): +151% vs +128% = ratio 1.18 -> the MONEY side moved more than the SHARE-COUNT side, i.e. bigger average trade tickets (institutional-size lots).
· [2] block prints (20d): 4 day(s) above 2x base -> occasional large orders.
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = DAH SING SECURITIES LTD [B01695] +19,847,039 sh (+0.10pp; seat).
· next: PHILLIP SECURITIES (HONG K [B01345] +16,382,000 sh (retail-broker).
· biggest cutter: HANG SENG BANK LTD [C00018] -70,851,440 sh (-0.36pp; institutional).
· [4] mainland (southbound, largely institutional/quasi): +98,580,000 sh over ~30d -> committed demand building.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER BROAD float - 100% free to trade.
Plenty of supply, so squeezes are hard to sustain - but rallies
need more real buying to keep going. Calmer.
DRILL free-float HK$124.8亿 of a HK$124.8亿 total cap (100% free, 0% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.27 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 1/3 HK$0.49亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 3/3 10v10 +128% (exploding)
TOTAL 7/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.40% of free float changes hands per day - this is how much of the tradeable supply actually turns over.
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: exploding
VERDICT: HEALTHY (7/9) - the weak link is POOL SIZE (HK$0.49亿 traded/day), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: shorts covering (short 20% but fading) -> adds a bid; mainland 33% & adding -> committed demand soaking float; institutional-tone flow.
TRADE READ: Buyers are winning (price up on building volume) - depth supports an orderly advance; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 19.72% of turnover (fading) | mainland = 32.85% held (+0.5pp/30d)
READ ~20% of the tape is borrowed supply but it's fading - shorts are covering, which itself adds a bid; the tape is getting cleaner. mainland keeps adding (+0.5pp) and now owns 33% - committed demand soaking up float, so the smaller remaining supply makes moves sharper both ways.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 0.62
1d / 5d: -4.6% / -3.8%
20d / 50d: 11.6% / 11.6%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 0.64 / 0.61 / 0.59
RSI-14: 15.8
ATR-14: 0.05 (7.8% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER REVERSING DOWN (5d pace negative, 20d was not).
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -3.8% over 5 days = -0.77%/day; 20d +11.6% over 20 days = +0.58%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -0.77%/day · 20d +0.58%/day · 50d +0.23%/day | MA20 slope +5.3%/10d · MA50 slope +3.3%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER SELLING PRESSURE (price down on rising volume - distribution).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -3.8% with 10d/10d volume +128% and today's volume -1.0σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER MID-RANGE - within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean (not stretched).
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 0.05 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 0.64: -3.1% (-0.4 ATR) below
· vs MA20 0.61: +2.1% (+0.3 ATR) above
· vs MA50 0.59: +6.5% (+0.8 ATR) above
· RSI-14 15.8: oversold, <30 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 8% up (0.53-1.65): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope +5.3%/10d · MA50 slope +3.3%/10d (mean rising)
READ Within ~1.5 ATR of the 20-day mean - mid-range, no stretch either way.
SO WHAT: no positional edge - let price break a level (mean reclaim or range break) before acting.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 0.69 (RSI 62) vs prior 0.64 (RSI 57) -> RSI confirmed the high (higher high, RSI not lower)
· lows: recent 0.61 (RSI 55) vs prior 0.54 (RSI 43) -> no lower low this half (price above the prior trough)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER A MIX of both.
WHY beta 2.41 = the stock normally moves about 2.41% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did +0.0% = market -2.2% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific +2.2%.
DRILL R2 0.20 over 59d - 20% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 3/3 MA5>MA20>MA50 with the mean rising - clean uptrend structure
Participation 3/3 10v10 +128% (building)
Room to run 3/3 +0.3 ATR from MA20 - mid-range, RSI 16
TOTAL 9/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: STRONG (9/9) - no weak link - the move is sound on every factor. Offsets: RSI 16 oversold; pinned near 52w lows.
TRADE READ: The move is DOWN on rising volume (real distribution); so a strong score cuts AGAINST longs - 'healthy' here means the decline is orderly, not that it will bounce.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [SELLING PRESSURE]
NOTE: Supply is hitting the tape - the momentum is down, not up.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: MIXED/NEUTRAL (score +0/100). Active themes: FLOW.
NARRATIVE SCORE: +0/100 [NO CLEAR NARRATIVE]
DRILL 0 bullish vs 0 bearish headline(s) of 3 (last 30d) | bull theme: - | bear theme: -.
READ No clearly bullish or bearish headline in the last 30 days - sentiment is neutral; there is no narrative edge to trade on.
SUMMARY (last 30 days):
Recent news tone is bearish. index-inclusion / southbound flow is a positive demand driver; brokers/analysts are active (rating or target-price changes); there is downside/risk noise (sell-offs, selling or scrutiny). On balance, near-term narrative leans CAUTIOUS.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: ANALYST validation (upgrades and target hikes give buyers cover to add); the INDEX-INCLUSION / southbound story (once in Stock Connect, mainland and passive money become a new source of demand).
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: a STORY-DAMAGE narrative (scrutiny or a momentum break has holders questioning the thesis).
DEMAND READ: Two narratives are fighting: the bull case (analyst validation) vs the bear case (story-damage). Likely two-way until one side wins.
[FLOW / OWNERSHIP]
- 北水增持融創中國 減持中國儒意 即時財經新聞 (28 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
- 北水增持碧桂園 減持融創中國 即時財經新聞 (24 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
- 北水增持融創中國 減持中國石油股份 即時財經新聞 (25 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [FLOW] 北水增持融創中國 減持中國儒意 即時財經新聞
* [FLOW] 北水增持碧桂園 減持融創中國 即時財經新聞
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· 北水增持融創中國 減持中國儒意 即時財經新聞 (28 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
· 北水增持碧桂園 減持融創中國 即時財經新聞 (24 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
· 北水增持融創中國 減持中國石油股份 即時財經新聞 (25 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
THEME TAGS: FLOW
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: step-up
Verdict: ACCUMULATION (new conviction)
Ticket size: large-ticket / higher-priced (institutional tilt)
This week vs month: 0.95
IN PLAIN WORDS: MONEY IS COMING IN. More trading AND rising price = real buyers with conviction. The cleanest 'someone is building' signal this tool can see.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = DAH SING SECURITIES LTD [B01695] +19,847,039 sh (+0.10pp; now 0.24%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 55 seat(s) built, 83 trimmed, net ADDING overall (+33,908,591 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+19,847,039 sh (+0.10pp) -> DAH SING SECURITIES LTD [B01695]
+16,382,000 sh (+0.08pp) -> PHILLIP SECURITIES (HONG KONG) [B01345]
+11,625,151 sh (+0.06pp) -> CHINA INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL CO [B01654]
TOP CUTTERS:
-70,851,440 sh (-0.36pp) -> HANG SENG BANK LTD [C00018]
-7,730,639 sh (-0.04pp) -> MERRILL LYNCH FAR EAST LTD [B01224]
-7,151,001 sh (-0.03pp) -> GOLDMAN SACHS (ASIA) SECURITIE [B01451]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 6,561,235,003 sh = 32.85% of the company (+98,580,000 sh / +0.49pp since 2026-09-07).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 19.72% of today's turnover (meaningful), and it is falling vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. SHORTS COVERING - heavy but fading; covering can itself support the price.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$9.7M vs 5d avg HK$20.9M; 0.024% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/HIGH] Structural liquidity shift: last 10d avg volume +128% vs prior 10d — hands are turning over faster.
[LIQUIDITY/HIGH] 4 block-volume days (>2x base) in last 20d: 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-30 — institutional-size prints.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.27 -> liquid.
[MOMENTUM/HIGH] Price > MA20 > MA50 — bullish trend alignment.
[MOMENTUM/MED] RSI14 = 16 — oversold, bounce potential.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 7.8% of price — very high volatility.
ANALYST NOTES
* Caveat: big *relative* volume shift (+127%) sits on a shallow pool (HK$0.49亿) — the % looks dramatic but real depth is limited; size positions small.
* Cross-check: both the size AND the per-trade value are rising -> this reads as real institutional accumulation, not just churn. Highest-conviction flow pattern this bot can detect from free data.
* Location: near 52w lows with RSI oversold (16) — bounce candidates, but 'cheap' is not a thesis; needs a real catalyst (note the narrative section).
* Tension: money is stepping in (ACCUMULATION) against a bearish headline tone — possible early positioning ahead of the news turning.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: FLOW and MOMENTUM AGREE (bullish): money is stepping in AND price is trending up. Cleanest long setup this tool flags — the tape is confirmed.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: large-ticket / higher-priced (institutional tilt). Price is near 52w lows (capitulation/bounce zone).
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: BEARISH. Index/flow event is a driver. -> news is bearish but tape disagrees; possible early positioning.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 8%); RSI oversold (16)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 0.6 HKD. Recent tape: 20d +11.6%, 5d -3.8%. Money is arriving with conviction (accumulation profile). Large-ticket / higher-priced (institutional tilt); price sits 8% up the 52w range. Headline tone is bearish with an index/flow driver. Bottom line: NET BULLISH. Tape and story point the same way, so this is a 'buy the dip, manage the risk' name rather than a 'chase it' one. Let entries come to you on pullbacks and keep stops wide enough for the range (ATR 8%). Key caveat: near 52w lows = weak structural positioning.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d +11.6% / 5d -3.8%, RSI 16, uptrend (MA5>MA20>MA50); price 8% up its 52w range. Flow: ACCUMULATION.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 0.58-0.61 on weakness | stop 0.53 | T1 0.72 (R:R ~1.4:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 0.72 (+15.8%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 0.72 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 0.81 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 7.8% of price; a stop-out is ~14.5% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 7.8%) -> half size, wider stops | CCASS non-custodian seats net trimming over ~14d (-26,514,765 sh) -> holders reducing | mainland (southbound) adding +98,580,000 sh -> committed dip demand | short 20% but fading -> covering adds a bid
ENTRY VERDICT: [BUY THE PULLBACK] GOOD ENTRY on weakness: buy the 0.58-0.61 zone (stop 0.53; first target 0.72; ~1.4:1). Trend/flow lean up; only invalidated below the stop.