希音-W
Price 31.02 HKD | 1d 0.6% | 5d -17.1% | 20d -26.1% | RSI 27
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.09%
Turnover value: 1.20 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): 0.44
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): -40%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): -47%
dValue/dVol ratio: 1.20
Block days (20d): 0
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.355
Float / Total cap: 878.0 / 1,317.2 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.09% traded (about 1 in 1097 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$1.20亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$1317.2亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.09%. The thin pool (vs HK$878.0亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
CAVEAT: HK$1317亿 total cap is a LARGE company - turnover % naturally
looks low for big floats, and that is NOT illiquidity; check the
Tradeability (Amihud) and Pool-size lines below, which are absolute.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER COOLING - participation fading
WHY average daily volume is 40% below the prior 10 sessions (~0.60x): fewer players engaged than before, so follow-through is less reliable.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 2,192,890 shares/day vs 3,626,588 in the prior 10d (-40%).
money per 10d: HK$0.74亿 now vs HK$1.41亿 before (-47%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER Weakly sellers - price down on flat/fading volume = interest dying (exhaustion).
WHY 20d price change is -26.1% (5d -17.1%) while 10v10 volume is -40% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits +0.44 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d 0.6% / 5d -17.1% / 20d -26.1% | Amihud 0.36 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BEARISH tape] deep book, falling tape - easy to exit, but no long edge here.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER volume 40% over a full 10-day window = structure draining away persistently
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence high - 2 institutional vs 0 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): -47% vs -40% = ratio 1.20 -> the MONEY side moved more than the SHARE-COUNT side, i.e. bigger average trade tickets (institutional-size lots).
· [2] block prints (20d): none -> no single large prints; flow looks ordinary/retail.
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = GOLDMAN SACHS (ASIA) SECUR [B01451] +1,574,600 sh (+0.03pp; INSTITUTIONAL bank/custodian seat).
· next: KGI ASIA LTD [B01610] +691,400 sh (retail-broker).
· biggest cutter: MERRILL LYNCH FAR EAST LTD [B01224] -1,682,399 sh (-0.04pp; institutional).
· [4] mainland (southbound): not Connect-eligible (local money only).
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER SMALL float - only 67% free to trade.
Fewer shares to absorb demand, so the same turnover moves price
MORE: squeezes fly up, air pockets fall fast. Exciting and dangerous.
DRILL free-float HK$878.0亿 of a HK$1317.2亿 total cap (67% free, 33% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.36 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 2/3 HK$1.20亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 1/3 10v10 -40% (fading)
TOTAL 6/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.14% of free float changes hands per day - looks low, but this is a LARGE cap: a big float dilutes the % (activity is relative to size, so it is NOT scored).
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: fading
VERDICT: HEALTHY (6/9) - the weak link is FRESHNESS (10v10 -40% (fading)), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: institutional-tone flow.
TRADE READ: Grinding lower (price down on flat/fading volume) - exhaustion, not panic; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 41.19% of turnover (steady) | mainland = not eligible
READ a moderate 41% of turnover is borrowed supply (steady) - real but not dominant; it colours the tape rather than drives it.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 31.02
1d / 5d: 0.6% / -17.1%
20d / 50d: -26.1% / —
RSI-14: 26.8
ATR-14: 2.44 (7.9% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER ACCELERATING DOWN.
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -17.1% over 5 days = -3.41%/day; 20d -26.1% over 20 days = -1.31%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -3.41%/day · 20d -1.31%/day · 50d n/a/day | MA20 slope n/a/10d · MA50 slope n/a/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER QUIET DRIFT DOWN (weak selling, no urgency).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -17.1% with 10d/10d volume -40% and today's volume +0.4σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER BELOW the mean - pullback / weak positioning.
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 2.44 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 32.75: -5.3% (-0.7 ATR) below
· vs MA20 37.23: -16.7% (-2.5 ATR) below
· RSI-14 26.8: oversold, <30 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 1% up (30.84-48.50): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope n/a/10d · MA50 slope n/a/10d (insufficient history for a slope)
READ Below the mean inside a falling structure: not 'cheap', but meaningfully stretched to the downside - a bounce can come, yet only a reclaim of the MA20 repairs the trend.
SO WHAT: weak, not cheap - treat a bounce as tradeable only once price RECLAIMS the MA20; until then the trend is still down.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure n/a insufficient MA history
Participation 1/3 10v10 -40% (drying up)
Room to run 2/3 -2.5 ATR from MA20 - moderately extended, RSI 27
TOTAL 3/6
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: ADEQUATE (3/6) - the weak link is PARTICIPATION (10v10 -40% (drying up)), so the move is capped there. Offsets: RSI 27 oversold; pinned near 52w lows.
TRADE READ: The move is DOWN but on light volume (weak drift, no urgency); so there is little force either way - wait for a volume or level break.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [QUIET DRIFT DOWN]
NOTE: Slow bleed with no urgency - no momentum edge either way.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: BULLISH (score +62/100). Active themes: FLOW, CATALYST.
NARRATIVE SCORE: +62/100 [BULLISH NARRATIVE]
DRILL 3 bullish vs 0 bearish headline(s) of 6 (last 30d) | bull theme: CATALYST | bear theme: -.
READ News flow is clearly positive (100% of the scored headlines bullish) - the market's narrative supports the tape.
SUMMARY (last 30 days):
Recent news tone is mixed. index-inclusion / southbound flow is a positive demand driver; fundamentals news (revenue/ARR/earnings) is moving the story; brokers/analysts are active (rating or target-price changes); product / commercial / technology milestones are in play; there is downside/risk noise (sell-offs, selling or scrutiny). Net effect on near-term sentiment is roughly NEUTRAL.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: the GROWTH story (revenue / ARR keeps inflecting and the path to profit shortens); a PRODUCT / catalyst narrative (orders, launches, supply or ecosystem wins extend the story past today's numbers); the INDEX-INCLUSION / southbound story (once in Stock Connect, mainland and passive money become a new source of demand); fresh-LISTING scarcity (a limited float plus a 'must-own' brand squeezes the supply).
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: a STORY-DAMAGE narrative (scrutiny or a momentum break has holders questioning the thesis).
DEMAND READ: Two narratives are fighting: the bull case (growth) vs the bear case (story-damage). Likely two-way until one side wins.
[FLOW / OWNERSHIP]
- 希音-W(00625)反彈逾4% 公司將快速納入恆生綜合指數入通仍需等待超半年 (08 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
[CATALYST / FUNDAMENTAL]
- SHEIN上市首份季績見紅 收入864億 盈利暴 上市不足一月股價累跌逾三成半 香港股民又被IPO神話割韭菜？ - BusinessFocus (29 Sep 2026 · BusinessFocus)
- 希音-W(00625) 較招股價已 富瑞此前予“跑輸大市”評級 (25 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
- 希音中報隱藏的賬本：訂單、效率與第二張牌 - Moomoo (28 Sep 2026 · Moomoo)
[OTHER]
- 希音-W(00625) 印第安納州新增73.7萬平方英尺自動化倉庫 (22 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
- 希音第二季經調利潤按年 即時財經新聞 (28 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [FLOW] 希音-W(00625)反彈逾4% 公司將快速納入恆生綜合指數入通仍需等待超半年
* [CATALYST] SHEIN上市首份季績見紅 收入864億 盈利暴 上市不足一月股價累跌逾三成半 香港股民又被IPO神話割韭菜？ - BusinessFocus
* [CATALYST] 希音-W(00625) 較招股價已 富瑞此前予“跑輸大市”評級
* [OTHER] 希音-W(00625) 印第安納州新增73.7萬平方英尺自動化倉庫
* [OTHER] 希音第二季經調利潤按年 即時財經新聞
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· SHEIN上市首份季績見紅 收入864億 盈利暴 上市不足一月股價累跌逾三成半 香港股民又被IPO神話割韭菜？ - BusinessFocus (29 Sep 2026 · BusinessFocus)
· 希音-W(00625) 較招股價已 富瑞此前予“跑輸大市”評級 (25 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· 希音中報隱藏的賬本：訂單、效率與第二張牌 - Moomoo (28 Sep 2026 · Moomoo)
· 希音-W(00625) 印第安納州新增73.7萬平方英尺自動化倉庫 (22 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· 希音第二季經調利潤按年 即時財經新聞 (28 Sep 2026 · 明報財經網)
· 希音-W(00625)反彈逾4% 公司將快速納入恆生綜合指數入通仍需等待超半年 (08 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
THEME TAGS: CATALYST, FLOW
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: step-down
Verdict: FADING (exhaustion)
Ticket size: large-ticket / higher-priced (institutional tilt)
This week vs month: 1.02
IN PLAIN WORDS: LOW ENERGY. Little is happening; no strong buyer or seller. Nothing to trade on.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = GOLDMAN SACHS (ASIA) SECURITIE [B01451] +1,574,600 sh (+0.03pp; now 2.25%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 50 seat(s) built, 41 trimmed, net ADDING overall (+29,700 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+1,574,600 sh (+0.03pp) -> GOLDMAN SACHS (ASIA) SECURITIE [B01451]
+691,400 sh (+0.02pp) -> KGI ASIA LTD [B01610]
+194,400 sh (+0.01pp) -> CITIC SECURITIES BROKERAGE (HK [B01228]
TOP CUTTERS:
-1,682,399 sh (-0.04pp) -> MERRILL LYNCH FAR EAST LTD [B01224]
-532,061 sh (-0.01pp) -> FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955]
-481,100 sh (-0.01pp) -> HAITONG INTERNATIONAL SECURITI [B01143]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER not a Stock-Connect-eligible name.
WHY only Connect-eligible stocks can take mainland money; most small/mid caps
are excluded - so any move here is local, not mainland-driven.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 41.19% of today's turnover (HEAVY), and it is steady vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. NORMAL - some short activity, nothing extreme.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$49.4M vs 5d avg HK$43.1M; 0.124% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/MED] Liquidity fading: last 10d avg volume -40% vs prior 10d — participation drying up.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.36 -> liquid.
[MOMENTUM/MED] RSI14 = 27 — oversold, bounce potential.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 7.9% of price — very high volatility.
ANALYST NOTES
* Location: near 52w lows with RSI oversold (27) — bounce candidates, but 'cheap' is not a thesis; needs a real catalyst (note the narrative section).
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: large-ticket / higher-priced (institutional tilt). Price is near 52w lows (capitulation/bounce zone).
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: NEUTRAL. A fundamental catalyst is in play. Index/flow event is a driver.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 8%); RSI oversold (27)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 31.0 HKD. Recent tape: 20d -26.1%, 5d -17.1%. Both volume and price are weakening (interest drying up). Large-ticket / higher-priced (institutional tilt); price sits 1% up the 52w range. Headline tone is neutral with a fundamental catalyst in play and an index/flow driver. Bottom line: NO CLEAN EDGE. The signals roughly cancel out, so there is nothing to do here right now — it's a 'watch, don't touch' name until either the flow steps up or price breaks a level worth trading. Key caveat: near 52w lows = weak structural positioning.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d -26.1% / 5d -17.1%, RSI 27, no clean trend; price 1% up its 52w range.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 28.44-29.90 on weakness | stop 25.99 | T1 35.90 (R:R ~1.5:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 41.20 (+32.8%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 35.90 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 42.42 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 7.9% of price; a stop-out is ~16.2% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 7.9%) -> half size, wider stops | CCASS non-custodian seats net trimming over ~14d (-400,803 sh) -> holders reducing
ENTRY VERDICT: [NO CLEAN ENTRY] NO EDGE at 31.02: signals cancel and the price is not near a clean trigger - stay flat until it bases and reclaims 41.20.