MINIMAX-W
Price 242.80 HKD | 1d -3.0% | 5d -13.0% | 20d -31.6% | RSI 69
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.80%
Turnover value: 6.88 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -1.57
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): -43%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): -47%
dValue/dVol ratio: 1.09
Block days (20d): 0
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.018
Float / Total cap: 658.9 / 855.8 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER MODERATE
WHY 0.80% traded (about 1 in 124 shares) - tradeable but light. There is enough activity to get in, but you must work size in/out patiently with limit orders rather than dumping at market.
DRILL HK$6.88亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$855.8亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.80%. The moderate pool (vs HK$658.9亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
CAVEAT: HK$856亿 total cap is a LARGE company - turnover % naturally
looks low for big floats, and that is NOT illiquidity; check the
Tradeability (Amihud) and Pool-size lines below, which are absolute.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER COOLING - participation fading
WHY average daily volume is 43% below the prior 10 sessions (~0.57x): fewer players engaged than before, so follow-through is less reliable.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 9,211,016 shares/day vs 16,176,960 in the prior 10d (-43%).
money per 10d: HK$25.73亿 now vs HK$48.67亿 before (-47%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER Weakly sellers - price down on flat/fading volume = interest dying (exhaustion).
WHY 20d price change is -31.6% (5d -13.0%) while 10v10 volume is -43% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -1.57 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d -3.0% / 5d -13.0% / 20d -31.6% | Amihud 0.02 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BEARISH tape] deep book, falling tape - easy to exit, but no long edge here.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER volume 43% over a full 10-day window = structure draining away persistently
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence moderate - 1 institutional vs 0 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): -47% vs -43% = ratio 1.09 -> scaled together; ticket size unchanged.
· [2] block prints (20d): none -> no single large prints; flow looks ordinary/retail.
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = MERRILL LYNCH FAR EAST LTD [B01224] +1,347,178 sh (+0.36pp; INSTITUTIONAL bank/custodian seat).
· next: INTERACTIVE BROKERS HONG K [B01590] +403,340 sh (retail-broker).
· biggest cutter: MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG S [B01274] -1,316,235 sh (-0.48pp; institutional).
· [4] mainland (southbound): -815,468 sh over ~30d -> committed demand leaving.
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER BROAD float - 77% free to trade.
Plenty of supply, so squeezes are hard to sustain - but rallies
need more real buying to keep going. Calmer.
DRILL free-float HK$658.9亿 of a HK$855.8亿 total cap (77% free, 23% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.02 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 3/3 HK$6.88亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 1/3 10v10 -43% (fading)
TOTAL 7/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 1.04% of free float changes hands per day - looks low, but this is a LARGE cap: a big float dilutes the % (activity is relative to size, so it is NOT scored).
Activity (turnover/float): moderate | Freshness: fading
VERDICT: HEALTHY (7/9) - the weak link is FRESHNESS (10v10 -43% (fading)), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: mainland trimming -> committed demand leaving.
TRADE READ: Grinding lower (price down on flat/fading volume) - exhaustion, not panic; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 28.59% of turnover (steady) | mainland = 10.28% held (-0.3pp/30d)
READ a moderate 29% of turnover is borrowed supply (steady) - real but not dominant; it colours the tape rather than drives it. mainland has been trimming (-0.3pp) - committed demand leaving, a liquidity-quality negative.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 242.80
1d / 5d: -3.0% / -13.0%
20d / 50d: -31.6% / 21.8%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 251.96 / 280.36 / 289.23
RSI-14: 68.6
ATR-14: 23.91 (9.8% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER ACCELERATING DOWN.
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -13.0% over 5 days = -2.59%/day; 20d -31.6% over 20 days = -1.58%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -2.59%/day · 20d -1.58%/day · 50d +0.44%/day | MA20 slope -9.1%/10d · MA50 slope +3.1%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER QUIET DRIFT DOWN (weak selling, no urgency).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -13.0% with 10d/10d volume -43% and today's volume -1.6σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER BELOW the mean - pullback / weak positioning.
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 23.91 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 251.96: -3.6% (-0.4 ATR) below
· vs MA20 280.36: -13.4% (-1.6 ATR) below
· vs MA50 289.23: -16.1% (-1.9 ATR) below
· RSI-14 68.6: firm, 60-70 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 5% up (193.10-1,238.00): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope -9.1%/10d · MA50 slope +3.1%/10d (mean falling)
READ Below the mean inside a falling structure: not 'cheap', but meaningfully stretched to the downside - a bounce can come, yet only a reclaim of the MA20 repairs the trend.
SO WHAT: weak, not cheap - treat a bounce as tradeable only once price RECLAIMS the MA20; until then the trend is still down.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 303.00 (RSI 51) vs prior 361.40 (RSI 58) -> no higher high this half (price below the prior peak)
· lows: recent 241.40 (RSI 39) vs prior 234.60 (RSI 35) -> no lower low this half (price above the prior trough)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta 2.47 = the stock normally moves about 2.47% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did -9.5% = market -2.2% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific -7.2%.
DRILL R2 0.07 over 59d - 7% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 3/3 MA5<MA20<MA50 with the mean falling - clean downtrend structure
Participation 1/3 10v10 -43% (drying up)
Room to run 2/3 -1.6 ATR from MA20 - moderately extended, RSI 69
TOTAL 6/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: HEALTHY (6/9) - the weak link is PARTICIPATION (10v10 -43% (drying up)), so the move is capped there. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story; pinned near 52w lows.
TRADE READ: The move is DOWN but on light volume (weak drift, no urgency); so there is little force either way - wait for a volume or level break.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [QUIET DRIFT DOWN]
NOTE: Slow bleed with no urgency - no momentum edge either way.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: BULLISH (score +75/100). Active themes: CATALYST.
NARRATIVE SCORE: +75/100 [BULLISH NARRATIVE]
DRILL 3 bullish vs 0 bearish headline(s) of 9 (last 30d) | bull theme: CATALYST | bear theme: -.
READ News flow is clearly positive (100% of the scored headlines bullish) - the market's narrative supports the tape.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
DRIVERS: 8月ARR已突破8億美元且市場關注後續ARR增長，H3模型上線三週下載量超2,400萬次、H3 Max跨過實時直播門檻，旗下產品通過Singtel AI Pass納入配套訂閱計劃。
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: 商業化進程明顯加速，ARR持續爬升帶動毛利率有望改善，高盛維持「買入」、花旗維持「買入/高風險」評級，訂閱渠道落地為收入添新引擎。
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: 花旗以「高風險」定調，估值已反映高速ARR增長預期，一旦ARR邊際增速或訂單落地不及預期，高估值與技術面壓力將放大波動。
DEMAND READ: ARR與產品落地持續提供支持，機構評級偏正面，短線方向偏受支持但需緊盯後續ARR增速能否兌現。
[CATALYST / FUNDAMENTAL]
- MINIMAX-W(00100) 8月ARR已超8億美金市場關注後續ARR增長 (17 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
- 高盛：MiniMax-W(00100)ARR持續爬升及毛利率有望改善 維持“買入”評級 (10 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
- MINIMAX-W(00100) 旗下多款產品通過Singtel AI Pass納入配套訂閱計劃 (18 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
[OTHER]
- MINIMAX-W(00100)授出合共209.2萬份獎勵 (29 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
- MINIMAX-W(00100) 最新文本模型M3.1-Flash-Preview上線MiniMax Code平臺 (30 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
- MINIMAX-W(00100) 近日正式開源MiniMax Code CLI (24 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [CATALYST] MINIMAX-W(00100) 8月ARR已超8億美金市場關注後續ARR增長
* [CATALYST] 高盛：MiniMax-W(00100)ARR持續爬升及毛利率有望改善 維持“買入”評級
* [OTHER] MINIMAX-W(00100)授出合共209.2萬份獎勵
* [OTHER] MINIMAX-W(00100) 最新文本模型M3.1-Flash-Preview上線MiniMax Code平臺
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· MINIMAX-W(00100)授出合共209.2萬份獎勵 (29 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· MINIMAX-W(00100) 最新文本模型M3.1-Flash-Preview上線MiniMax Code平臺 (30 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· MINIMAX-W(00100) 近日正式開源MiniMax Code CLI (24 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· MINIMAX-W(00100) 8月ARR已超8億美金市場關注後續ARR增長 (17 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· 高盛：MiniMax-W(00100)ARR持續爬升及毛利率有望改善 維持“買入”評級 (10 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· MINIMAX-W(00100) 旗下多款產品通過Singtel AI Pass納入配套訂閱計劃 (18 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· MINIMAX-W(00100) H3模型上線三週下載量超2400萬次 (07 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· MINIMAX-W(00100) 沙特Humain借力中國MiniMax 推出阿拉伯語AI模型 (04 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
· 花旗：維持MiniMax-W(00100)“買入/高風險”評級 8月ARR突破8億美元 (04 Sep 2026 · Investing.com 香港 - 股市報價& 財經新聞)
THEME TAGS: CATALYST
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: step-down
Verdict: FADING (exhaustion)
Ticket size: proportional (same crowd, more of it)
This week vs month: 0.42
IN PLAIN WORDS: LOW ENERGY. Little is happening; no strong buyer or seller. Nothing to trade on.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = MERRILL LYNCH FAR EAST LTD [B01224] +1,347,178 sh (+0.36pp; now 2.85%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 112 seat(s) built, 91 trimmed, net TRIMMING overall (-410,402 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+1,347,178 sh (+0.36pp) -> MERRILL LYNCH FAR EAST LTD [B01224]
+403,340 sh (+0.11pp) -> INTERACTIVE BROKERS HONG KONG [B01590]
+223,914 sh (-0.01pp) -> FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955]
TOP CUTTERS:
-1,316,235 sh (-0.48pp) -> MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG SECUR [B01274]
-1,089,915 sh (-0.38pp) -> GOLDMAN SACHS (ASIA) SECURITIE [B01451]
-862,427 sh (-0.30pp) -> UBS SECURITIES HONG KONG LTD [B01161]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 36,259,186 sh = 10.28% of the company (-815,468 sh / -0.33pp since 2026-09-07).
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 28.59% of today's turnover (HEAVY), and it is steady vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. NORMAL - some short activity, nothing extreme.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$1.97億 vs 5d avg HK$2.41億; 0.493% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/MED] Liquidity fading: last 10d avg volume -43% vs prior 10d — participation drying up.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.02 -> liquid.
[MOMENTUM/HIGH] Price < MA20 < MA50 — bearish trend alignment.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 9.8% of price — very high volatility.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: proportional (same crowd, more of it). Price is near 52w lows (capitulation/bounce zone).
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: NEUTRAL. A fundamental catalyst is in play.
RISK: volatility extreme (ATR 10%)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 242.8 HKD. Recent tape: 20d -31.6%, 5d -13.0%. Both volume and price are weakening (interest drying up). Proportional (same crowd, more of it); price sits 4% up the 52w range. Headline tone is neutral with a fundamental catalyst in play. Bottom line: LEANING BEARISH but not a clean setup — the tilt is real but not confirmed. Treat it as a starter position at most and let the dominant signal (flow or a price break) confirm before adding. Key caveat: near 52w lows = weak structural positioning; outsized swings demand reduced position size.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d -31.6% / 5d -13.0%, RSI 69, downtrend (MA5<MA20<MA50); price 4% up its 52w range.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 217.85-232.20 on weakness | stop 193.94 | T1 290.63 (R:R ~1.5:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 322.00 (+32.6%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 290.63 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 395.00 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 9.8% of price; a stop-out is ~20.1% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 9.8%) -> half size, wider stops | CCASS non-custodian seats net trimming over ~14d (-1,192,180 sh) -> holders reducing | mainland (southbound) trimming -815,468 sh -> committed demand leaving
ENTRY VERDICT: [STARTER ONLY] LEANING BEARISH but not confirmed: starter size only if 217.85-232.20 holds, add above 322.00. Stop 193.94; keep it small until flow/price agree.
Event-driven section adds CCASS register (who holds) + Stock Connect holdings (mainland) + short selling (ETNet).
Proxy-level analysis from free data (no Level-2 order book / tick ownership).
Not investment advice.