群核科技
Price 7.13 HKD | 1d 1.0% | 5d -9.2% | 20d -25.3% | RSI 57
SECTION 1 - LIQUIDITY
Turnover rate (real): 0.12%
Turnover value: 0.15 亿HKD
Volume z-score (20d): -0.92
Struct dVol (shares, 10v10): -70%
Struct dValue (money, 10v10): -77%
dValue/dVol ratio: 1.10
Block days (20d): 18
Amihud illiquidity (20d): 0.619
Float / Total cap: 123.1 / 123.1 亿HKD
LIQUIDITY, EXPLAINED (each question answered for THIS stock)
Liquidity = how easily you trade WITHOUT moving the price.
Q1. HOW DEEP is the liquidity?
ANSWER THIN
WHY only 0.12% traded (about 1 in 842 shares) - very few shares change hands. A small order can gap the price and exiting real size is genuinely hard; liquidity is a risk here, not a convenience.
DRILL HK$0.15亿 actually changed hands today against a HK$123.1亿
total market cap - i.e. turnover = traded value / market cap
= 0.12%. The thin pool (vs HK$123.1亿 float) is what sets the slippage.
(Depth = turnover rate: traded HK$ / the company's OWN market cap. It is
RELATIVE to size, so a mega-cap shows a low % even when it trades hundreds of
millions a day. The ABSOLUTE 'can I trade my size?' test is the price-impact
(Amihud) + HK$/day scorecard below. Big pool = you trade quietly; thin pool
= your own order moves the price. NB: NONE of this tells you direction.)
Q2. HOW FRESH is the liquidity? (new money, or the same crowd?)
ANSWER STALE / DRAINING - activity collapsing
WHY average daily volume is 70% BELOW the prior 10 sessions (~0.30x): participants are leaving and interest is dying - moves made now are on stale, thinning flow.
DRILL last-10d avg volume 5,502,928 shares/day vs 18,242,510 in the prior 10d (-70%).
money per 10d: HK$0.44亿 now vs HK$1.90亿 before (-77%) -
freshness is measured in both share count AND committed capital.
(Freshness = 10-day-vs-prior-10-day volume shift. Rising = new blood,
which is what makes a move matter. Flat = churn, and churn means little.)
Q3. WHO is winning the change of hands?
(Shares moving sellers->buyers only says HOW MUCH traded; price says WHO won.)
ANSWER Weakly sellers - price down on flat/fading volume = interest dying (exhaustion).
WHY 20d price change is -25.3% (5d -9.2%) while 10v10 volume is -70% - matching price and volume direction is what separates a real win from churn.
DRILL today's volume sits -0.92 sigma vs its 20d mean (no single-day anomaly).
DATA: 1d 1.0% / 5d -9.2% / 20d -25.3% | Amihud 0.62 (low impact).
VERDICT: [LIQUID tradeability / BEARISH tape] deep book, falling tape - easy to exit, but no long edge here.
Q4. Any SYSTEMATIC / STRUCTURAL change - or just a one-day spike?
ANSWER volume 70% over a full 10-day window = structure draining away persistently
18 block days in 20 = big players active REPEATEDLY (systematic, not one-off)
DRILL the 18 block day(s) (>2x the prior 20d base) fell on 2026-09-23, 2026-09-24, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30.
WHY structural change = sustained over weeks and shows up in the 10v10 and
block-day counts. A one-day z-score spike alone is noise and fades.
Q5. WHOSE money is it - institutions or retail?
ANSWER INSTITUTIONAL-LEANING (confidence high - 2 institutional vs 0 retail signals).
WHY big orders must lift the book to fill (money rises faster than share count);
many small orders nibble without moving the price. That ratio - plus who shows
up in the settlement register and the block prints - is the evidence, not one number.
EVIDENCE:
· [1] money vs shares (10v10): -77% vs -70% = ratio 1.10 -> scaled together; ticket size unchanged.
· [2] block prints (20d): 18 days above 2x base volume (2026-09-28, 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30) -> big single orders hit REPEATEDLY (institutional-size).
· [3] settlement register (CCASS, ~14d): biggest builder = MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG S [B01274] +348,719,028 sh (+20.20pp; INSTITUTIONAL bank/custodian seat).
· next: BOCI SECURITIES LTD [B01130] +470,500 sh (institutional).
· biggest cutter: FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIO [B01955] -3,351,252 sh (-0.19pp; retail-broker).
· [4] mainland (southbound): holds 0.96% (prior unavailable).
Q6. How much supply is free to trade (float)?
ANSWER BROAD float - 100% free to trade.
Plenty of supply, so squeezes are hard to sustain - but rallies
need more real buying to keep going. Calmer.
DRILL free-float HK$123.1亿 of a HK$123.1亿 total cap (100% free, 0% locked).
BOTTOM LINE - LIQUIDITY HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - ABSOLUTE tradeability (can you trade your size?), not direction (see Q3):
Tradeability (impact) 3/3 Amihud 0.62 - low impact: can trade size cheaply
Pool size (HK$/day) 1/3 HK$0.15亿 traded/day
Freshness (10v10) 1/3 10v10 -70% (collapsing)
TOTAL 5/9
ACTIVITY (turnover vs float - relative to size, not scored): 0.12% of free float changes hands per day - this is how much of the tradeable supply actually turns over.
Activity (turnover/float): thin | Freshness: collapsing
VERDICT: ADEQUATE (5/9) - the weak link is FRESHNESS (10v10 -70% (collapsing)), so tradeable size is limited. Offsets: borrowed supply heavy & building (short 32%) -> fragile bid; repeat big-player prints.
TRADE READ: Grinding lower (price down on flat/fading volume) - exhaustion, not panic; and the pool is deep, so exits are cheap and moves are orderly - which cuts BOTH ways (a fall can grind without a squeezy bounce).
Rule to remember: big turnover is bullish ONLY when price rises WITH it.
READING THE FLOW BEHIND LIQUIDITY
short = 32.00% of turnover (building) | mainland = 0.96% held
READ ~32% of the tape is borrowed supply and it's rising into a falling price - the selling is partly short-driven, so the bid stays fragile now but can snap back hard once shorts stop adding.
SECTION 2 - MOMENTUM
Price: 7.13
1d / 5d: 1.0% / -9.2%
20d / 50d: -25.3% / -17.3%
MA5 / MA20 / MA50: 7.36 / 8.76 / 8.77
RSI-14: 56.9
ATR-14: 0.59 (8.3% of price)
Q1. How FAST is it moving - speeding up, or rolling over?
ANSWER ACCELERATING DOWN.
WHY pace = the per-day speed of the move. 5d -9.2% over 5 days = -1.83%/day; 20d -25.3% over 20 days = -1.26%/day. A faster recent pace means the move is heating up; a slower one means it is fading.
DRILL pace 5d -1.83%/day · 20d -1.26%/day · 50d -0.35%/day | MA20 slope -5.2%/10d · MA50 slope -2.5%/10d
Q2. Is it REAL momentum, or a fake drift? (price must move WITH volume)
ANSWER QUIET DRIFT DOWN (weak selling, no urgency).
WHY real momentum needs price AND participation to rise together. Price drifting up on
flat/falling volume is not momentum - it is a thin tape that can reverse on no news.
DRILL 5d return -9.2% with 10d/10d volume -70% and today's volume -0.9σ vs its 20d normal.
Q3. How EXTENDED is it - room to run, or stretched?
ANSWER BELOW the mean - pullback / weak positioning.
WHY extension = how far price sits from its average, measured in ATR units
(1 ATR = a typical day's swing = 0.59 pts). Fewer ATRs from the mean =
mid-range; more = stretched and prone to snapping back. Read it WITH the trend:
in an uptrend 'above the mean' is strength; in a downtrend 'below the mean' is weakness.
FACTS (distance from each average, in % and ATR):
· vs MA5 7.36: -3.1% (-0.4 ATR) below
· vs MA20 8.76: -18.6% (-2.7 ATR) below
· vs MA50 8.77: -18.7% (-2.8 ATR) below
· RSI-14 56.9: neutral, 40-60 (50 = neutral midline)
· 52w range: 0% up (7.06-38.80): near lows (weak)
· MA20 slope -5.2%/10d · MA50 slope -2.5%/10d (mean falling)
READ Below the mean inside a falling structure: not 'cheap', but meaningfully stretched to the downside - a bounce can come, yet only a reclaim of the MA20 repairs the trend.
SO WHAT: weak, not cheap - treat a bounce as tradeable only once price RECLAIMS the MA20; until then the trend is still down.
Q4. Is there a DIVERGENCE? (the early exhaustion tell)
ANSWER NONE - price and momentum agree; no warning sign.
WHY divergence = price prints a new extreme while RSI fails to follow. It is a quiet
warning the move is running on fumes BEFORE the price itself turns. We split the last
20 sessions into two 10-day halves and compare each half's swing high and low.
· highs: recent 8.49 (RSI 45) vs prior 12.47 (RSI 72) -> no higher high this half (price below the prior peak)
· lows: recent 7.06 (RSI 36) vs prior 7.90 (RSI 41) -> RSI confirmed the low (lower low, RSI not higher)
DRILL neither a higher-high-with-lower-RSI nor a lower-low-with-higher-RSI appeared -
price and momentum are moving in step, so there is no exhaustion tell yet.
SO WHAT: no exhaustion tell - the trend can be trusted for now; a divergence would be your FIRST warning that it is fading, so it is the thing to watch.
Q5. Is the move the STOCK, or just the MARKET?
ANSWER MOSTLY THIS STOCK (its own story).
WHY beta 1.56 = the stock normally moves about 1.56% per 1% HSI move. Over the last 5d it did -9.9% = market -1.4% (beta x HSI) + stock-specific -8.5%.
DRILL R2 0.04 over 59d - 4% of this stock's swing is explained by the index; the rest is its own story.
BOTTOM LINE - MOMENTUM HEALTH
SCORECARD (1 weak / 2 ok / 3 strong) - STRENGTH & quality of the move ("clean, confirmed trend with room to run?"), not direction (see the VERDICT):
Trend structure 3/3 MA5<MA20<MA50 with the mean falling - clean downtrend structure
Participation 1/3 10v10 -70% (drying up)
Room to run 2/3 -2.7 ATR from MA20 - moderately extended, RSI 57
TOTAL 6/9
DIVERGENCE (the exhaustion tell - a warning flag, not scored): none - price and momentum are moving in step (no exhaustion tell).
VERDICT: HEALTHY (6/9) - the weak link is PARTICIPATION (10v10 -70% (drying up)), so the move is capped there. Offsets: move is mostly this stock's own story; pinned near 52w lows.
TRADE READ: The move is DOWN but on light volume (weak drift, no urgency); so there is little force either way - wait for a volume or level break.
Rule to remember: momentum is real ONLY when price and volume move together - and even a strong score cuts both ways (strong DOWN momentum is still down).
MOMENTUM VERDICT: [QUIET DRIFT DOWN]
NOTE: Slow bleed with no urgency - no momentum edge either way.
SECTION 3 - NARRATIVE (trading story)
Net news tone: BULLISH (score +45/100). Active themes: FLOW, CATALYST, RISK.
NARRATIVE SCORE: +45/100 [BULLISH NARRATIVE]
DRILL 10 bullish vs 1 bearish headline(s) of 33 (last 30d) | bull theme: OTHER | bear theme: RISK.
READ News flow is clearly positive (91% of the scored headlines bullish) - the market's narrative supports the tape.
WHAT THE MARKET IS TRADING ON:
DRIVERS: 群核科技以「杭州六小龍」首宗IPO姿態上市，孖展超購逾千倍、暗盤及首日分別升約1.7倍與1.4倍，首掛高開後一手賺逾5,000元；其後與金涌投資簽署戰略合作備忘錄加速全球擴張。
WHAT BULLS BELIEVE: AI空間模型與雲端空間設計概念稀缺，CFO稱數據優勢築護城河、海外收入有望反超內地，以香港為起點拓展空間智能國際業務，4日累升近4倍。
WHAT BEARS BELIEVE: 有分析直指追捧「下一隻智譜稀宇」的憧憬暗藏風險，且公司增長雖可期但現金流仍待轉正，超購千倍反映的散戶槓桿與大戶護盤情緒一旦退潮易現回吐。
DEMAND READ: 新股熱潮下需求強勁但已price-in大量憧憬，屬高波動的資金驅動行情，短線受捧惟基本面（現金流）與過熱情緒形成兩頭拉鋸。
[FLOW / OWNERSHIP]
- 恒指半日跌347點北水流入56億新股群核科技 長光辰芯升86% 即時財經新聞 (17 Apr 2026 · 明報財經網)
[CATALYST / FUNDAMENTAL]
- 金涌投資與群核科技達成戰略合作備忘錄 即時財經新聞 (30 Apr 2026 · 明報財經網)
[RISK]
- 憧憬勢成下隻智譜稀宇 追捧群核科技暗藏風險 - 東周網 (18 Apr 2026 · 東周網)
[OTHER]
- 【新股IPO】Manycore群核科技0068首掛收升逾1.4倍、一手賺5490元長光辰芯3277彈76% 有贊6051轉板首日遇冷、收挫4% (17 Apr 2026 · 香港經濟日報HKET)
- 港股IPO｜雲端空間設計商 「杭州六小龍」群核科技招股 每手入場費約3,800元 (09 Apr 2026 · Yahoo 財經)
- 群核暗盤最多升1.7倍 每手帳賺6450元 - 20260417 - 經濟 (17 Apr 2026 · 明報新聞網)
KEY DRIVERS (filtered):
* [FLOW] 恒指半日跌347點北水流入56億新股群核科技 長光辰芯升86% 即時財經新聞
* [CATALYST] 金涌投資與群核科技達成戰略合作備忘錄 即時財經新聞
* [RISK] 憧憬勢成下隻智譜稀宇 追捧群核科技暗藏風險 - 東周網
* [OTHER] 【新股IPO】Manycore群核科技0068首掛收升逾1.4倍、一手賺5490元長光辰芯3277彈76% 有贊6051轉板首日遇冷、收挫4%
* [OTHER] 港股IPO｜雲端空間設計商 「杭州六小龍」群核科技招股 每手入場費約3,800元
LATEST HEADLINES (last 30 days):
· 【新股IPO】Manycore群核科技0068首掛收升逾1.4倍、一手賺5490元長光辰芯3277彈76% 有贊6051轉板首日遇冷、收挫4% (17 Apr 2026 · 香港經濟日報HKET)
· 港股IPO｜雲端空間設計商 「杭州六小龍」群核科技招股 每手入場費約3,800元 (09 Apr 2026 · Yahoo 財經)
· 憧憬勢成下隻智譜稀宇 追捧群核科技暗藏風險 - 東周網 (18 Apr 2026 · 東周網)
· 群核暗盤最多升1.7倍 每手帳賺6450元 - 20260417 - 經濟 (17 Apr 2026 · 明報新聞網)
· 【首隻杭州六小龍】群核科技招股半日超購 10 倍 拆解SaaS 槓桿與大戶護盤底牌 - 經濟一週 (10 Apr 2026 · 經濟一週)
· 新股IPO丨群核科技暗盤早段升1.5倍 長光辰芯升68% (16 Apr 2026 · 信報網站)
· 群核科技首日飆163% 杭州六小龍引爆港股新股熱潮 - BusinessFocus (17 Apr 2026 · BusinessFocus)
· 【新股IPO】「杭州六小龍」Manycore群核科技0068截飛孖展1312億超購1074倍 CFO：海外市場收入有望反超內地 (14 Apr 2026 · 香港經濟日報HKET)
· 簡訊：超額近千六倍 群核科技首掛午收升逾倍 (16 Apr 2026 · Yahoo 財經)
· 杭州六小龍頭炮群核科技首掛飆1.7倍 CTO︰以港為起點續拓國際化 (17 Apr 2026 · 香港01)
· 「杭州六小龍」首家IPO 群核科技入場費約3848元 - 香港文匯報 (10 Apr 2026 · 香港文匯報)
· 金涌投資與群核科技達成戰略合作備忘錄 即時財經新聞 (30 Apr 2026 · 明報財經網)
THEME TAGS: CATALYST, FLOW, RISK
SECTION 4 - FLOW (who is buying, and is it real?)
Regime: step-down
Verdict: FADING (exhaustion)
Ticket size: proportional (same crowd, more of it)
This week vs month: 0.29
IN PLAIN WORDS: LOW ENERGY. Little is happening; no strong buyer or seller. Nothing to trade on.
WHOSE HANDS - THE SETTLEMENT REGISTER (CCASS)
Q. Whose stake actually moved over the last ~14 days?
ANSWER biggest build = MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG SECUR [B01274] +348,719,028 sh (+20.20pp; now 20.47%).
over 2026-09-18 -> 2026-10-02 (~14d): 78 seat(s) built, 31 trimmed, net ADDING overall (+577,478,163 sh); custodian/omnibus banks excluded.
TOP BUILDERS:
+348,719,028 sh (+20.20pp) -> MORGAN STANLEY HONG KONG SECUR [B01274]
+470,500 sh (+0.03pp) -> BOCI SECURITIES LTD [B01130]
+318,500 sh (+0.02pp) -> CMB WING LUNG BANK LTD [C00042]
TOP CUTTERS:
-3,351,252 sh (-0.19pp) -> FUTU SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL [B01955]
-575,000 sh (-0.04pp) -> CHINA MERCHANTS SECURITIES (HK [B01148]
-251,500 sh (-0.01pp) -> CCB INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES L [B01813]
WHY CCASS is HK's central settlement register - every share sits in a
broker/custodian seat. The huge custodian/omnibus seats just hold
everyone's shares, so we skip them and follow the specific seats whose
stake actually changed. A seat that keeps building = its clients are
accumulating. (pp = change in % of the company held.)
Q. Is mainland money involved? (Stock Connect / southbound)
ANSWER southbound holds 16,777,500 sh = 0.96% of the company.
WHY southbound = mainland investors buying via Stock Connect. Rising holdings
= mainland demand building; falling = they are leaving. It is a real,
named-holder feed, not an inferred proxy.
Q. Is anyone betting AGAINST it? (short selling)
ANSWER short selling = 32.00% of today's turnover (HEAVY), and it is rising vs the 5-day average.
WHY short selling = shares borrowed and sold first, hoping to buy back cheaper -
a bet on (or hedge against) a fall. BEARS PRESSING - shorts are active and building.
DRILL 02/10/2026 - short HK$4.7M vs 5d avg HK$3.1M; 0.012% of ALL market short-selling.
SIGNALS
[LIQUIDITY/MED] Liquidity fading: last 10d avg volume -70% vs prior 10d — participation drying up.
[LIQUIDITY/HIGH] 18 block-volume days (>2x base) in last 20d: 2026-09-24, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-29, 2026-09-30 — institutional-size prints.
[LIQUIDITY/LOW] Amihud illiquidity (20d) = 0.62 -> liquid.
[MOMENTUM/HIGH] Price < MA20 < MA50 — bearish trend alignment.
[RISK/MED] ATR14 = 8.3% of price — very high volatility.
SYNTHESIS - HOW TO PIECE THIS TOGETHER
FLOW + MOMENTUM: STABLE: neither flow nor momentum is making a decisive move — no edge from the tape right now.
WHO / WHERE: Money character: proportional (same crowd, more of it). Price is near 52w lows (capitulation/bounce zone).
NARRATIVE: Headline tone: BULLISH. A fundamental catalyst is in play. Index/flow event is a driver. Risk headlines present.
RISK: volatility high (ATR 8%)
PUTTING IT TOGETHER:
Trading at 7.1 HKD. Recent tape: 20d -25.3%, 5d -9.2%. Both volume and price are weakening (interest drying up). Proportional (same crowd, more of it); price sits 0% up the 52w range. Headline tone is bullish with a fundamental catalyst in play and an index/flow driver. Bottom line: NO CLEAN EDGE. The signals roughly cancel out, so there is nothing to do here right now — it's a 'watch, don't touch' name until either the flow steps up or price breaks a level worth trading. Key caveat: near 52w lows = weak structural positioning.
ENTRY POINTS - WHERE TO ACT (trade plan)
SETUP: 20d -25.3% / 5d -9.2%, RSI 57, downtrend (MA5<MA20<MA50); price 0% up its 52w range.
PULLBACK ENTRY: buy 6.50-6.86 on weakness | stop 5.91 | T1 8.32 (R:R ~1.5:1)
BREAKOUT ENTRY: distant - the nearest 10-day high is 9.03 (+26.6%), so a breakout is not a near-term trigger; price must first reclaim that level.
TARGETS: T1 8.32 (+2xATR, short-term) | T2 13.20 (nearest resistance / swing high).
STOP / RISK: ATR 8.3% of price; a stop-out is ~17.1% from spot. Size so a stop costs ~1-2% of the book.
FLAGS: high volatility (ATR 8.3%) -> half size, wider stops | CCASS non-custodian seats net building over ~14d (+347,795,176 sh) -> real holders adding | short 32% and building -> supply overhang, dips can get flushed
ENTRY VERDICT: [NO CLEAN ENTRY] NO EDGE at 7.13: signals cancel and the price is not near a clean trigger - stay flat until it bases and reclaims 9.03.